Box office disappointment for Lucasfilm: 'Solo: A Star Wars Story' opens with $103 million holiday weekend
UPDATE: Final estimates came in just slightly higher for Solo. Original article below.
At one point in Ron Howard's Solo: A Star Wars Story, Alden Ehrenreich's smuggler says "I have a really good feeling about this," clearly a riff on one of the most iconic lines of the franchise. Well, it may be a little too easy to make puns with that line, but it's safe to say that nobody at Disney or Lucasfilm is feeling too good about Solo's box office take this weekend. The second spin-off film (the first being 2016's Rogue One) in Disney and Lucasfilm's rebooted and refreshed Star Wars series debuted to just $83.3 million over the 3-day weekend, a very low debut for such an established franchise. The film is estimated to make $103 million over the Memorial Day holiday frame.
In a world where most blockbusters are saved by foreign box office numbers, the news was not much better for Solo overseas. We knew it wouldn't do very well in China, but the weak numbers elsewhere are not encouraging at all. The film made only $65 million in international territories, a certifiably disappointing total for a series that normally makes most of its money in the U.S. anyways. In a time when the latest Avengers and Fast & Furious movies make 60-80% of their money overseas, the Star Wars saga has struggled to keep up. Make no mistake- this is very bad for a film that reportedly cost anywhere from $250-$300 million after the much-discussed reshoots. With domestic openings of $247.9 million, $155 million, and $220 million and boffo international numbers for the last few Star Wars movies, how did Solo end up crashing so hard?
The answer is complex to say the least. Solo was always one of the most challenging and controversial films in the new series, as many maintained that no actor could match the charisma and spirit that Harrison Ford brought to this role. Alden Ehrenreich has received praise for his performance, but he's been frequently overshadowed by calls for a standalone movie with Donald Glover's Lando Calrissian. Nonetheless, there was a substantial burst of optimism when LEGO Movie and Jump Street directors Phil Lord and Christopher Miller were hired to take on the project. Lord and Miller developed a reputation in Hollywood for turning bad ideas into great movies, and many believed that they could do the same for this spin-off.
And then they were fired. I remember being on a long car ride when I read the news, and it's not an overstatement to say that it was one of the most shocking studio announcements during my time in this wild world of movie blogging. Lord and Miller were let go after a clash with Lucasfilm chief Kathleen Kennedy and screenwriter Lawrence Kasdan, who both reportedly disagreed with their comedic take on the story. The hugely public firing raised questions about Lucasfilm's management style, as well as additional questions about the direction of this growing franchise. There was a little burst of enthusiasm when Ron Howard was brought on to do reshoots and finish much of the film, but you could feel the air sucked out of the room. Many of the hardcore fans were deflated, and that level of excitement never returned. This was a project to be viewed with intense skepticism, and there was nothing you could say to convince many fans otherwise.
That drop in anticipation was deeply felt. Even when Solo received mostly good reviews, there was still a feeling of trepidation and caution. Of course, I don't know if Lord and Miller's version of the movie would have been any good, let alone good enough to attract rave reviews and spectacular box office. Nonetheless, I guarantee that the energy surrounding that prospective version of the movie would have been palpable, and the results could have been very, very different. I think there was something of a ripple effect of disappointment that started with fans and people in the industry, eventually spreading to the general public. And in the end, it cost the film.
But there's more than just the Lord and Miller firing- the ripple effect is real, but who knows how much general audiences pay attention to online chatter or any of that stuff. May was also unbelievably stacked with blockbusters- the hotly-anticipated Avengers: Infinity War and Deadpool 2 raked in the big bucks, possibly creating an even greater lack of excitement for Solo. This was also something of a test for Lucasfilm's big picture strategy, which includes a plan to release multiple Star Wars movies in a year, similar to how Marvel Studios usually releases three films in the span of 12 months. Since Rian Johnson's The Last Jedi hit theaters only 5 months ago, some wondered if seeing "A Long Time Ago in a Galaxy Far, Far Away" on the big screen again so soon would be a little less special. I don't know if so-called "Star Wars fatigue" is a thing, but the box office numbers don't lie.
So what are the results of this disappointing opening? Well, I think Lucasfilm has already made adjustments to their directorial strategy, opting for solid craftsmen like James Mangold and familiar faces like Johnson and J.J. Abrams over tonally risky choices. They're also going to have to make some changes to their release plan. Two Star Wars movies in a year just isn't happening- unless you can accept that not every film will be the biggest of the year. Marvel saturates the market with their movies, but nobody expects Ant-Man and the Wasp to play like Infinity War. You could argue that expectations for Solo were lower than for the last two saga films, which is undeniably true. But original tracking had Solo at $130 million, an opening well above most MCU titles. These movies can't all be sensations. Keep Star Wars in December, release one movie a year, and do your best to make each one great- everybody's happy.
The international box office numbers are indicative of a different situation altogether, and I think Lucasfilm needs to be increasingly concerned about the lack of a strong reception to these films in many territories. Beyond that, we're going to see a reinforcement of Hollywood's current marketing strategy, as Solo only released its first trailer three months before it hit theaters. Who knows if an earlier trailer would have helped matters, but fans and pundits have maintained for a long time that a franchise like this could just arrive in theaters with little marketing or pre-release hype. Well, that didn't work out this time around. Star Wars also won't be returning to May any time soon, and I doubt that studios will be eager to plop their films in the Memorial Day weekend slot. It seems to be the kiss of death for blockbusters- if it can take down this behemoth, it can take down anything.
Solo will likely lose a good deal of money for Lucasfilm, as the budget is just too enormous to overcome. It has another chance to recover next weekend, when Johnny Knoxville's Action Point, the Shailene Woodley-led Adrift, and Blumhouse's Upgrade open in theaters. In addition, I doubt we'll be seeing Solo 2, even with the numerous hints at further adventures throughout this film (which are less enticing than groan-inducing in many ways). It's a solid movie, and it's better than it has any right to be after all the behind-the-scenes chaos. But if Solo represented something of an expensive experiment for Lucasfilm, it has to be chalked up as a failure. It's going to be interesting to see how the Star Wars saga progresses from here, but it'll be nice to get a good long break before Episode IX. At this point, both Lucasfilm and the fanbase could use one.
Image: Lucasfilm/IMDb
At one point in Ron Howard's Solo: A Star Wars Story, Alden Ehrenreich's smuggler says "I have a really good feeling about this," clearly a riff on one of the most iconic lines of the franchise. Well, it may be a little too easy to make puns with that line, but it's safe to say that nobody at Disney or Lucasfilm is feeling too good about Solo's box office take this weekend. The second spin-off film (the first being 2016's Rogue One) in Disney and Lucasfilm's rebooted and refreshed Star Wars series debuted to just $83.3 million over the 3-day weekend, a very low debut for such an established franchise. The film is estimated to make $103 million over the Memorial Day holiday frame.
In a world where most blockbusters are saved by foreign box office numbers, the news was not much better for Solo overseas. We knew it wouldn't do very well in China, but the weak numbers elsewhere are not encouraging at all. The film made only $65 million in international territories, a certifiably disappointing total for a series that normally makes most of its money in the U.S. anyways. In a time when the latest Avengers and Fast & Furious movies make 60-80% of their money overseas, the Star Wars saga has struggled to keep up. Make no mistake- this is very bad for a film that reportedly cost anywhere from $250-$300 million after the much-discussed reshoots. With domestic openings of $247.9 million, $155 million, and $220 million and boffo international numbers for the last few Star Wars movies, how did Solo end up crashing so hard?
The answer is complex to say the least. Solo was always one of the most challenging and controversial films in the new series, as many maintained that no actor could match the charisma and spirit that Harrison Ford brought to this role. Alden Ehrenreich has received praise for his performance, but he's been frequently overshadowed by calls for a standalone movie with Donald Glover's Lando Calrissian. Nonetheless, there was a substantial burst of optimism when LEGO Movie and Jump Street directors Phil Lord and Christopher Miller were hired to take on the project. Lord and Miller developed a reputation in Hollywood for turning bad ideas into great movies, and many believed that they could do the same for this spin-off.
And then they were fired. I remember being on a long car ride when I read the news, and it's not an overstatement to say that it was one of the most shocking studio announcements during my time in this wild world of movie blogging. Lord and Miller were let go after a clash with Lucasfilm chief Kathleen Kennedy and screenwriter Lawrence Kasdan, who both reportedly disagreed with their comedic take on the story. The hugely public firing raised questions about Lucasfilm's management style, as well as additional questions about the direction of this growing franchise. There was a little burst of enthusiasm when Ron Howard was brought on to do reshoots and finish much of the film, but you could feel the air sucked out of the room. Many of the hardcore fans were deflated, and that level of excitement never returned. This was a project to be viewed with intense skepticism, and there was nothing you could say to convince many fans otherwise.
That drop in anticipation was deeply felt. Even when Solo received mostly good reviews, there was still a feeling of trepidation and caution. Of course, I don't know if Lord and Miller's version of the movie would have been any good, let alone good enough to attract rave reviews and spectacular box office. Nonetheless, I guarantee that the energy surrounding that prospective version of the movie would have been palpable, and the results could have been very, very different. I think there was something of a ripple effect of disappointment that started with fans and people in the industry, eventually spreading to the general public. And in the end, it cost the film.
But there's more than just the Lord and Miller firing- the ripple effect is real, but who knows how much general audiences pay attention to online chatter or any of that stuff. May was also unbelievably stacked with blockbusters- the hotly-anticipated Avengers: Infinity War and Deadpool 2 raked in the big bucks, possibly creating an even greater lack of excitement for Solo. This was also something of a test for Lucasfilm's big picture strategy, which includes a plan to release multiple Star Wars movies in a year, similar to how Marvel Studios usually releases three films in the span of 12 months. Since Rian Johnson's The Last Jedi hit theaters only 5 months ago, some wondered if seeing "A Long Time Ago in a Galaxy Far, Far Away" on the big screen again so soon would be a little less special. I don't know if so-called "Star Wars fatigue" is a thing, but the box office numbers don't lie.
So what are the results of this disappointing opening? Well, I think Lucasfilm has already made adjustments to their directorial strategy, opting for solid craftsmen like James Mangold and familiar faces like Johnson and J.J. Abrams over tonally risky choices. They're also going to have to make some changes to their release plan. Two Star Wars movies in a year just isn't happening- unless you can accept that not every film will be the biggest of the year. Marvel saturates the market with their movies, but nobody expects Ant-Man and the Wasp to play like Infinity War. You could argue that expectations for Solo were lower than for the last two saga films, which is undeniably true. But original tracking had Solo at $130 million, an opening well above most MCU titles. These movies can't all be sensations. Keep Star Wars in December, release one movie a year, and do your best to make each one great- everybody's happy.
The international box office numbers are indicative of a different situation altogether, and I think Lucasfilm needs to be increasingly concerned about the lack of a strong reception to these films in many territories. Beyond that, we're going to see a reinforcement of Hollywood's current marketing strategy, as Solo only released its first trailer three months before it hit theaters. Who knows if an earlier trailer would have helped matters, but fans and pundits have maintained for a long time that a franchise like this could just arrive in theaters with little marketing or pre-release hype. Well, that didn't work out this time around. Star Wars also won't be returning to May any time soon, and I doubt that studios will be eager to plop their films in the Memorial Day weekend slot. It seems to be the kiss of death for blockbusters- if it can take down this behemoth, it can take down anything.
Solo will likely lose a good deal of money for Lucasfilm, as the budget is just too enormous to overcome. It has another chance to recover next weekend, when Johnny Knoxville's Action Point, the Shailene Woodley-led Adrift, and Blumhouse's Upgrade open in theaters. In addition, I doubt we'll be seeing Solo 2, even with the numerous hints at further adventures throughout this film (which are less enticing than groan-inducing in many ways). It's a solid movie, and it's better than it has any right to be after all the behind-the-scenes chaos. But if Solo represented something of an expensive experiment for Lucasfilm, it has to be chalked up as a failure. It's going to be interesting to see how the Star Wars saga progresses from here, but it'll be nice to get a good long break before Episode IX. At this point, both Lucasfilm and the fanbase could use one.
Image: Lucasfilm/IMDb
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