With $200 million+ tracking and record pre-sale numbers, how high can 'Avengers: Infinity War' fly at the box office?
As the world patiently awaits for Avengers: Infinity War, the culmination of the saga that began in 2008 with Iron Man, there have been two major developments on the box office front for this epic superhero team-up movie. The first arrived last Thursday in the form of an exclusive from Deadline's Anthony D'Alessandro, who reported that Infinity War is tracking for upwards of $200 million in its domestic opening weekend, which would easily be one of the biggest openings in box office history. The article notes that Disney will likely predict a lower number, but this was spectacular tracking for three weeks out from the film's official release (at the time of Deadline's publication).
But while the tracking was undeniably impressive, the reveal of the movie's staggering pre-sale numbers emerged as the more eye-catching development. First reported by Fandango's Erik Davis and expanded by Variety, Infinity War has more than doubled Black Panther's number of pre-sale tickets sold at this point in the sale cycle. That's undeniably impressive, but one could make the argument that the buzz for Ryan Coogler's groundbreaking superhero film really reached a fever pitch in the week leading up to its astonishing opening weekend. No, the really impressive statistic is that Infinity War is pacing ahead of the last seven Marvel movies (Panther, Thor: Ragnarok, Spider-Man: Homecoming, Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 2, Doctor Strange, Captain America: Civil War, and Ant-Man) combined. Take all of the pre-sales for those movies from roughly 2.5 weeks before release, add them all up, and you still wouldn't have as many pre-sales as Infinity War has at this point in time.
That is mind-boggling. I was genuinely shocked when I read those numbers, and after not really thinking much about this movie's potential record-breaking opening, I really began to wonder how high Infinity War will go when it opens at the end of the month. To recap, let's talk about the current list of the biggest openings of all time. For the sake of this article, I'm going to assume that Infinity War will open to above $200 million. That's not a guarantee- Age of Ultron opened at $191.2 million, which disappointed box office pundits and fans at the time. But I think it would be truly surprising if the culmination of the Marvel Cinematic Universe fell short of the mark, as this is the movie that we've been working towards for nearly a decade.
At this point, there are only five movies that have opened over $200 million. Here's the list:
1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens- $247.9 million
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi- $220 million
3. Jurassic World- $208.8 million
4. Marvel's The Avengers- $207.4 million
5. Black Panther- $202 million
If you had asked me before yesterday, I would have cautiously placed Infinity War between Age of Ultron and The Last Jedi. That's a wide range (just under $30 million), but after these numbers today, I'm going to expand further. I think it's necessary to start considering the full range of possibilities for the film, so here are five hugely different estimates for Infinity War:
-Extremely conservative estimate- $210 million
-Conservative estimate- $220 million
-Realistic estimate- $245 million
-Optimistic estimate- $270 million
-Extremely optimistic estimate- $300 million
At one point, I was between $191 million and $220 million, a wide range. Now, in the span of five estimates, I've nearly tripled my range. At this moment, I believe Infinity War will open between $210 million and $300 million. Will I eventually settle on a more limited range as the release approaches? Of course. But with just over two weeks until Thanos arrives to mix things up, I want to consider how this all might go down.
So in my current "worst-case" scenario, Infinity War still ends up with the third-highest opening weekend of all time. Would it be disappointing considering the tracking and the astronomical pre-sales? Yes. But there's always the possibility that this is the kind of movie where hardcore fans buy a ton of tickets only for general audiences to be mostly indifferent. Some have speculated that the cumulative nature of Infinity War, accompanied by the idea that you need to have seen all 18 of the previous films, will cause the average ticket-buyer to stay home. I find that to be a bit of a far-fetched idea, but it's a possibility.
Jumping up to my next estimate, a $220 million opening would put the film in line with The Last Jedi for the second-biggest opening in history. This would be the highest Marvel opening of all time, as well as the largest for a superhero movie. However, I still think this is a conservative guess. After all, if Black Panther had opened on a normal, non-holiday weekend, it would have definitely ended up with an opening closer to $220 million. I know many people have made the Wonder Woman/Justice League comparison, noting that a social phenomenon won't necessarily translate to the next big team-up movie. But the expectations are vastly different- Infinity War is widely expected to be an incredible cinematic experience, while Justice League was a plagued production that nobody had any faith in. With all of the other added-value elements and the prominence of Black Panther in the marketing, I can't see a world where Infinity War opens in the same range as that film. It seems destined to climb higher.
Which brings us to the third estimate- $245 million, putting it in the same vicinity as the opening for J.J. Abrams' Star Wars: The Force Awakens. When that film arrived just a week before Christmas in 2015, I remember some pundits speculating that the holiday release would keep it from breaking Jurassic World's record, as many average consumers were thought to be busy with other activities. But I still wonder- how much higher would The Force Awakens' opening have been if it had opened in the summer? It wouldn't have been a substantial difference, but it very well could have reached $270 million with that added push. If we assume that the excitement for Infinity War is just a notch below the buzz around The Force Awakens, that gives us an opening of $245 million. At this point, that's realistic to me.
But let's theorize for a second. Let's say that audiences are as excited, if not more excited for Infinity War than they were for The Force Awakens. Let's assume that everyone is ready to see all of these characters combine for one epic movie. Where does that put the opening? My optimistic estimate, based on the early tracking and pre-sales, is $270 million. There's a lot working in Infinity War's favor. It has the market all to itself practically, it's the movie that Marvel has been building towards for almost a decade, and it will likely be well-reviewed. If the buzz ensures that fans know this is a must-see event, I see no reason why it can't shatter the record and gross upwards of $270 million.
And then to wrap things up, there's my final, highly unlikely projection- the mythical $300 million opening. No film has even sniffed an opening in that area, and I don't even know if theaters are equipped to handle that kind of business. But if any film was able to generate enough excitement and enough out-of-this-world demand to earn that kind of money, it just might be Infinity War. I'm not ready to predict this yet, but I want to say that this is a genuine possibility that we need to be ready for. Two weeks out, my "official" prediction is $255 million. I'm feeling optimistic about its chances, but I'm not ready to take it to that wild territory just yet.
I'll have more to say about this closer to release, but I hope this paints an interesting picture of what's sure to be a record-smashing opening. We could be witnessing something really special in just a few short weeks. Stay tuned for more.
Images: Marvel/IMDb
But while the tracking was undeniably impressive, the reveal of the movie's staggering pre-sale numbers emerged as the more eye-catching development. First reported by Fandango's Erik Davis and expanded by Variety, Infinity War has more than doubled Black Panther's number of pre-sale tickets sold at this point in the sale cycle. That's undeniably impressive, but one could make the argument that the buzz for Ryan Coogler's groundbreaking superhero film really reached a fever pitch in the week leading up to its astonishing opening weekend. No, the really impressive statistic is that Infinity War is pacing ahead of the last seven Marvel movies (Panther, Thor: Ragnarok, Spider-Man: Homecoming, Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 2, Doctor Strange, Captain America: Civil War, and Ant-Man) combined. Take all of the pre-sales for those movies from roughly 2.5 weeks before release, add them all up, and you still wouldn't have as many pre-sales as Infinity War has at this point in time.
That is mind-boggling. I was genuinely shocked when I read those numbers, and after not really thinking much about this movie's potential record-breaking opening, I really began to wonder how high Infinity War will go when it opens at the end of the month. To recap, let's talk about the current list of the biggest openings of all time. For the sake of this article, I'm going to assume that Infinity War will open to above $200 million. That's not a guarantee- Age of Ultron opened at $191.2 million, which disappointed box office pundits and fans at the time. But I think it would be truly surprising if the culmination of the Marvel Cinematic Universe fell short of the mark, as this is the movie that we've been working towards for nearly a decade.
At this point, there are only five movies that have opened over $200 million. Here's the list:
1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens- $247.9 million
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi- $220 million
3. Jurassic World- $208.8 million
4. Marvel's The Avengers- $207.4 million
5. Black Panther- $202 million
If you had asked me before yesterday, I would have cautiously placed Infinity War between Age of Ultron and The Last Jedi. That's a wide range (just under $30 million), but after these numbers today, I'm going to expand further. I think it's necessary to start considering the full range of possibilities for the film, so here are five hugely different estimates for Infinity War:
-Extremely conservative estimate- $210 million
-Conservative estimate- $220 million
-Realistic estimate- $245 million
-Optimistic estimate- $270 million
-Extremely optimistic estimate- $300 million
At one point, I was between $191 million and $220 million, a wide range. Now, in the span of five estimates, I've nearly tripled my range. At this moment, I believe Infinity War will open between $210 million and $300 million. Will I eventually settle on a more limited range as the release approaches? Of course. But with just over two weeks until Thanos arrives to mix things up, I want to consider how this all might go down.
So in my current "worst-case" scenario, Infinity War still ends up with the third-highest opening weekend of all time. Would it be disappointing considering the tracking and the astronomical pre-sales? Yes. But there's always the possibility that this is the kind of movie where hardcore fans buy a ton of tickets only for general audiences to be mostly indifferent. Some have speculated that the cumulative nature of Infinity War, accompanied by the idea that you need to have seen all 18 of the previous films, will cause the average ticket-buyer to stay home. I find that to be a bit of a far-fetched idea, but it's a possibility.
Jumping up to my next estimate, a $220 million opening would put the film in line with The Last Jedi for the second-biggest opening in history. This would be the highest Marvel opening of all time, as well as the largest for a superhero movie. However, I still think this is a conservative guess. After all, if Black Panther had opened on a normal, non-holiday weekend, it would have definitely ended up with an opening closer to $220 million. I know many people have made the Wonder Woman/Justice League comparison, noting that a social phenomenon won't necessarily translate to the next big team-up movie. But the expectations are vastly different- Infinity War is widely expected to be an incredible cinematic experience, while Justice League was a plagued production that nobody had any faith in. With all of the other added-value elements and the prominence of Black Panther in the marketing, I can't see a world where Infinity War opens in the same range as that film. It seems destined to climb higher.
Which brings us to the third estimate- $245 million, putting it in the same vicinity as the opening for J.J. Abrams' Star Wars: The Force Awakens. When that film arrived just a week before Christmas in 2015, I remember some pundits speculating that the holiday release would keep it from breaking Jurassic World's record, as many average consumers were thought to be busy with other activities. But I still wonder- how much higher would The Force Awakens' opening have been if it had opened in the summer? It wouldn't have been a substantial difference, but it very well could have reached $270 million with that added push. If we assume that the excitement for Infinity War is just a notch below the buzz around The Force Awakens, that gives us an opening of $245 million. At this point, that's realistic to me.
But let's theorize for a second. Let's say that audiences are as excited, if not more excited for Infinity War than they were for The Force Awakens. Let's assume that everyone is ready to see all of these characters combine for one epic movie. Where does that put the opening? My optimistic estimate, based on the early tracking and pre-sales, is $270 million. There's a lot working in Infinity War's favor. It has the market all to itself practically, it's the movie that Marvel has been building towards for almost a decade, and it will likely be well-reviewed. If the buzz ensures that fans know this is a must-see event, I see no reason why it can't shatter the record and gross upwards of $270 million.
And then to wrap things up, there's my final, highly unlikely projection- the mythical $300 million opening. No film has even sniffed an opening in that area, and I don't even know if theaters are equipped to handle that kind of business. But if any film was able to generate enough excitement and enough out-of-this-world demand to earn that kind of money, it just might be Infinity War. I'm not ready to predict this yet, but I want to say that this is a genuine possibility that we need to be ready for. Two weeks out, my "official" prediction is $255 million. I'm feeling optimistic about its chances, but I'm not ready to take it to that wild territory just yet.
I'll have more to say about this closer to release, but I hope this paints an interesting picture of what's sure to be a record-smashing opening. We could be witnessing something really special in just a few short weeks. Stay tuned for more.
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