The time has finally come. After an awards season that has been going strong since January 2017, the 90th annual Academy Awards will finally be presented at the Dolby Theatre on Sunday. It's an Oscar race that has taken place during a tumultuous time period for the country and for the film industry, with the rocky first year of the Trump Administration and the MeToo movement coming to define much of the competition. And for the Academy, we're now one year removed from the biggest fiasco in Oscar history, which saw La La Land accidentally named Best Picture before frenzied stage assistants rushed to announce Moonlight as the real winner. Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway will be back to present Best Picture again this year, and I'm fairly sure that there will be a good deal of uncertainty when that final award is announced. Partially because nobody trusts the two of them, and partially because we just don't know what will win. The acting categories may be locked up, but Best Picture is as unpredictable as ever. I have no confidence in these predictions, but well, I gotta make them anyways. So here we go- without further delay, here are my predictions for the 90th edition of the Oscars.
BEST PICTURE
Image: Universal/IMDB
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Okay, we're gonna turn this into a bit of a process. Daniel Joyaux at Third Man Movies has turned predicting the Oscars into something of a science, so I'm taking a bit from his logical playbook, while not coming to exactly the same conclusion. First, there are three movies that I think are definitively out- Call Me By Your Name, The Post, and Darkest Hour. The latter two films are just too boring and old-fashioned in a deeply unconventional year, while Sony Pictures totally botched the campaign for the former. So in my mind, they're out.
From there, we're left with six movies. Conventional wisdom would say Phantom Thread is gone as well, but I'm not ready to eliminate Paul Thomas Anderson's fashion drama quite yet. I know Lady Bird is something of a consensus pick, yet I just can't wrap my head around it winning Best Picture. Even with the push for Greta Gerwig, I'm not feeling the support. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is leading with the actors, but man, it's just so divisive. I would be very surprised if it wins, even though it seems to fit the bill in many ways.
That leaves us with four movies- Dunkirk, Get Out, Phantom Thread, and The Shape of Water. Okay, so I know Phantom Thread is a bit of a pipe dream, but that movie came out of nowhere in the nominations to surprise us all. Is another shock in order? I just don't know. I'm not feeling gutsy enough to predict that one. Same can be said for Dunkirk- I would love it if Christopher Nolan's war epic won, but it just hasn't amassed enough momentum in other categories for me to take a gamble. Joyaux and Variety's Kris Tapley have speculated that it could win, which makes predicting Dunkirk an attractive possibility. It sure would be an amazing surprise.
Ultimately though, the race is down to The Shape of Water and Get Out. If La La Land had won last year, I would be taking The Shape of Water here. It leads all nominees, it's going to take home Best Director and a bunch of craft wins, and it has a lot of passionate supporters. But La La Land didn't win last year, and I feel like we're in a very similar situation this time around with Jordan Peele's Get Out. Sure, there might be a lot of older voters who think it's not an "Oscar movie," but it's the movie of the moment. It was a huge success, an undeniable cultural phenomenon that re-shaped genres and cemented its place in the record books. And at the 11th hour, it won last night's Film Independent Spirit Award for Best Picture. It only feels right for it to win Best Picture at the Oscars too. So I'm taking the gamble and picking Get Out. What do I have to lose?
Prediction: Get Out
BEST DIRECTOR
Image courtesy of Fox Searchlight
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
If you had asked me six months ago, I would have told you Christopher Nolan without hesitation. But the tide has changed drastically, and it appears that The Shape of Water's Guillermo del Toro has the momentum. He won at the Directors Guild easily, and he hasn't missed a step along the way. Greta Gerwig and Jordan Peele have supporters as well, but it's going to be del Toro.
Unless Phantom Thread has a hidden pocket of supporters that help to push Paul Thomas Anderson to a stunning victory, del Toro has it in the bag.
Prediction: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
BEST ACTOR
Image courtesy of Focus Features
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
It would be great if Timothée Chalamet or Daniel Day-Lewis managed to pull off the upset here for their rich, nuanced work in Call Me By Your Name and Phantom Thread, respectively. But as much as cinephiles like me would love for that to happen, the Oscars aren't about what we want. Gary Oldman is winning Best Actor for his work as Winston Churchill- this was decided long ago. It's a sure thing.
Prediction: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
BEST ACTRESS
Image courtesy of Fox Searchlight
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
One of the most competitive categories quickly turned into a one-woman show. Even with Saoirse Ronan, Margot Robbie, and Sally Hawkins earning accolades for their performances, this is Frances McDormand's Oscar to lose. And it makes sense- Three Billboards is a big, loud movie, and McDormand's performance is the most attention-grabbing. She pulls off the bombastic insults, but the actress also finds power in the most quiet and vulnerable of moments. While her competition is fierce, I would be shocked if anyone but McDormand walked away with this award on Sunday.
Prediction: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Image courtesy of Fox Searchlight
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
At one point, it seemed like this was Willem Dafoe's year. Just like Gary Oldman, it was a case of a long overdue veteran finally getting recognition for an unconventional performance. But as The Florida Project faded from the Oscar race, another contender swooped in to become the front-runner- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri's Sam Rockwell. While Jason Dixon has been one of the most controversial characters of this awards season, almost everyone agrees that Rockwell is sensational in the role. He has this one locked up- an upset would be nothing less than stunning.
Prediction: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Image courtesy of Focus Features
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
In theory, this category is also a lock. Allison Janney has won just about everything for her role as the acid-tongued LaVona Harding in I, Tonya, which makes her the easy favorite for the Oscars. But what's the fun in predicting the Oscars if you don't take a stab at a few upsets? Janney could very well be upset by either Lady Bird's Laurie Metcalf or Phantom Thread's Lesley Manville. But while Metcalf seemingly had her moment early in the race, I think much of the support for Manville's Cyril Woodcock has grown in recent weeks. I'm banking on some surprise fans of Phantom Thread in the Academy and going with Manville for the win.
Prediction: Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Image: Universal/IMDB
Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick
Jordan Peele Get Out
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor, The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Other than Best Picture, this is the toughest category of the night. I think it's safe to say that The Big Sick and The Shape of Water won't be winning here, but Lady Bird, Get Out, and Three Billboards all have a shot. Lady Bird won Best Screenplay at the Spirits last night, while Three Billboards has had quite a bit of support throughout the season. But I can't imagine a world where Get Out wins Best Picture without taking Best Original Screenplay as well. So I'm going with Jordan Peele's horror satire for the win, though don't be surprised to see some kind of upset here.
Prediction: Jordan Peele, Get Out
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Image: Sony Pictures Classics/IMDB
James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber, The Disaster Artist
Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green, Logan
Aaron Sorkin, Molly's Game
Virgil Williams and Dee Rees, Mudbound
I know some pundits think Virgil Williams and Dee Rees have a shot for their Mudbound screenplay, but this one is going to go to James Ivory for Call Me By Your Name. The veteran filmmaker wrote an acclaimed and beloved movie, and while Sony Pictures Classics dropped the ball on the campaign as a whole, I can't imagine that Luca Guadagnino's masterwork will go completely overlooked.
Prediction: James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Image: Disney/IMDB
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
Yeah, so Coco is gonna win this category. Any other film would be a genuine shock.
Prediction: Coco
BEST DOCUMENTARY FILM
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island
Agnes Varda and JR's Faces Places has a shot at Oscar glory, but I'm going with Icarus, the story of how the Russian Olympic doping scandal was broken open. Seems like a timely fit for this award.
Prediction: Icarus
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
A Fantastic Woman
The Insult
Loveless
On Body and Soul
The Square
This category is extraordinarily unpredictable, so I'm just going to take a shot in the dark and say that Sebastian Lelio's A Fantastic Woman walks away with the Oscar. It has the most exposure, and it seems to be more easy to like than, say, The Square.
Prediction: A Fantastic Woman
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Image courtesy of Fox Searchlight
Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk
Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread
Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water
John Williams, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Carter Burwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
It's down to Jonny Greenwood and Alexandre Desplat for the Oscar. Desplat has been winning all season for his dreamy score in Guillermo del Toro's The Shape of Water, while Greenwood is the cinephile favorite for his work in Paul Thomas Anderson's Phantom Thread. I'm predicting Desplat, but Greenwood pulling the upset would be a thrilling victory.
Prediction: Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Image courtesy of 20th Century Fox
"Mighty River" from Mudbound
"Mystery of Love" from Call Me By Your Name
"Remember Me" from Coco
"Stand Up for Something" from Marshall
"This is Me" from The Greatest Showman
This one is nearly impossible to predict. Will voters remember the emotional impact of Coco or the extravagant fun of The Greatest Showman? Or maybe they split the votes enough to allow Sufjan Stevens the chance to win for Call Me By Your Name? I'm going with a repeat for Pasek and Paul, but nothing would surprise me here.
Prediction: "This is Me" from The Greatest Showman
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Image courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures
Roger A. Deakins, Blade Runner 2049
Bruno Delbonnel, Darkest Hour
Hoyte van Hoytema, Dunkirk
Rachel Morrison, Mudbound
Dan Laustsen, The Shape of Water
It HAS to be Roger Deakins, right? Since Blade Runner 2049 premiered (or one could even argue since the very first trailer), pundits have been suggesting that this could finally be Deakins' year after 13 previous nominations. He'll face stiff competition from Hoyte van Hoytema and Dan Laustsen, but I have Deakins coming out on top.
Prediction: Roger A. Deakins, Blade Runner 2049
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Image courtesy of Focus Features
Jacqueline Durran, Beauty and the Beast
Jacqueline Durran, Darkest Hour
Mark Bridges, Phantom Thread
Luis Sequeira, The Shape of Water
Consolata Boyle, Victoria & Abdul
Plenty of good costumes in this category, but I'm going with the movie that's literally about making clothes.
Prediction: Mark Bridges, Phantom Thread
BEST FILM EDITING
Image courtesy of Sony
Paul Machliss and Jonathan Amos, Baby Driver
Lee Smith, Dunkirk
Tatiana S. Riegel, I, Tonya
Sidney Wolinsky, The Shape of Water
Jon Gregory, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
This is a competitive category, as Baby Driver's Paul Machliss and Jonathan Amos have come on strong at the very last minute to pose a challenge to Dunkirk's Lee Smith. While the astonishing cross-cutting of the war epic would seem like an easy fit for Best Film Editing, I'm going with the more kinetically striking, invigorating work in Edgar Wright's musical car chase flick.
Prediction: Paul Machliss and Jonathan Amos, Baby Driver
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Image courtesy of Fox Searchlight
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
The Shape of Water is the heavy favorite on Gold Derby, but I think it faces a major challenge in Blade Runner 2049. Both are spectacular sci-fi movies, and I wouldn't be surprised to see either win. I'm going with Guillermo del Toro's film, simply because I think a whopping 13 nominations has to result in at least 3 wins.
Prediction: The Shape of Water
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Image courtesy of Focus Features
Darkest Hour
Victoria & Abdul
Wonder
The movie where they made Gary Oldman look like Winston Churchill is gonna win. Next.
Prediction: Darkest Hour
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
While I feel bad for War for the Planet of the Apes, I have a feeling that we're going to see Denis Villeneuve's Blade Runner 2049 take the prize here. The VFX team may not have designed human-like apes, but they did create some killer special effects in a visually staggering film.
Prediction: Blade Runner 2049
BEST SOUND EDITING
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
I have both categories going to Dunkirk, one of the most impressive films I've ever heard from a sound standpoint. Impeccable work.
Prediction: Dunkirk
BEST SOUND MIXING
Image courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Read above.
Prediction: Dunkirk
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Dear Basketball
Garden Party
Lou
Negative Space
Revolting Rhymes
I usually don't know much about the short categories, if I'm being completely honest. I only know that Kobe Bryant's Dear Basketball is the favorite here- should be an easy win for the most high-profile short.
Prediction: Dear Basketball
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
DeKalb Elementary
The Eleven O'Clock
My Nephew Emmett
The Silent Child
Watu Wote/All of Us
DeKalb Elementary is the Gold Derby favorite, but I'm going with The Silent Child upset.
Prediction: The Silent Child
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Edith + Eddie
Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Heroin(e)
Knife Skills
Traffic Stop
Edith + Eddie seems to be the one with the most momentum.
Prediction: Edith + Eddie
My predictions have the Academy spreading the wealth this year, with Guillermo del Toro's The Shape of Water leading all winners with just 3 victories. That being said, it's sure to be an unpredictable night. This season has been filled with ups and downs, and we're in for a spectacular finish.
Check back tonight for more coverage from the 90th annual Oscars.
BEST PICTURE
Image: Universal/IMDB
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Okay, we're gonna turn this into a bit of a process. Daniel Joyaux at Third Man Movies has turned predicting the Oscars into something of a science, so I'm taking a bit from his logical playbook, while not coming to exactly the same conclusion. First, there are three movies that I think are definitively out- Call Me By Your Name, The Post, and Darkest Hour. The latter two films are just too boring and old-fashioned in a deeply unconventional year, while Sony Pictures totally botched the campaign for the former. So in my mind, they're out.
From there, we're left with six movies. Conventional wisdom would say Phantom Thread is gone as well, but I'm not ready to eliminate Paul Thomas Anderson's fashion drama quite yet. I know Lady Bird is something of a consensus pick, yet I just can't wrap my head around it winning Best Picture. Even with the push for Greta Gerwig, I'm not feeling the support. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is leading with the actors, but man, it's just so divisive. I would be very surprised if it wins, even though it seems to fit the bill in many ways.
That leaves us with four movies- Dunkirk, Get Out, Phantom Thread, and The Shape of Water. Okay, so I know Phantom Thread is a bit of a pipe dream, but that movie came out of nowhere in the nominations to surprise us all. Is another shock in order? I just don't know. I'm not feeling gutsy enough to predict that one. Same can be said for Dunkirk- I would love it if Christopher Nolan's war epic won, but it just hasn't amassed enough momentum in other categories for me to take a gamble. Joyaux and Variety's Kris Tapley have speculated that it could win, which makes predicting Dunkirk an attractive possibility. It sure would be an amazing surprise.
Ultimately though, the race is down to The Shape of Water and Get Out. If La La Land had won last year, I would be taking The Shape of Water here. It leads all nominees, it's going to take home Best Director and a bunch of craft wins, and it has a lot of passionate supporters. But La La Land didn't win last year, and I feel like we're in a very similar situation this time around with Jordan Peele's Get Out. Sure, there might be a lot of older voters who think it's not an "Oscar movie," but it's the movie of the moment. It was a huge success, an undeniable cultural phenomenon that re-shaped genres and cemented its place in the record books. And at the 11th hour, it won last night's Film Independent Spirit Award for Best Picture. It only feels right for it to win Best Picture at the Oscars too. So I'm taking the gamble and picking Get Out. What do I have to lose?
Prediction: Get Out
BEST DIRECTOR
Image courtesy of Fox Searchlight
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
If you had asked me six months ago, I would have told you Christopher Nolan without hesitation. But the tide has changed drastically, and it appears that The Shape of Water's Guillermo del Toro has the momentum. He won at the Directors Guild easily, and he hasn't missed a step along the way. Greta Gerwig and Jordan Peele have supporters as well, but it's going to be del Toro.
Unless Phantom Thread has a hidden pocket of supporters that help to push Paul Thomas Anderson to a stunning victory, del Toro has it in the bag.
Prediction: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
BEST ACTOR
Image courtesy of Focus Features
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
It would be great if Timothée Chalamet or Daniel Day-Lewis managed to pull off the upset here for their rich, nuanced work in Call Me By Your Name and Phantom Thread, respectively. But as much as cinephiles like me would love for that to happen, the Oscars aren't about what we want. Gary Oldman is winning Best Actor for his work as Winston Churchill- this was decided long ago. It's a sure thing.
Prediction: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
BEST ACTRESS
Image courtesy of Fox Searchlight
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
One of the most competitive categories quickly turned into a one-woman show. Even with Saoirse Ronan, Margot Robbie, and Sally Hawkins earning accolades for their performances, this is Frances McDormand's Oscar to lose. And it makes sense- Three Billboards is a big, loud movie, and McDormand's performance is the most attention-grabbing. She pulls off the bombastic insults, but the actress also finds power in the most quiet and vulnerable of moments. While her competition is fierce, I would be shocked if anyone but McDormand walked away with this award on Sunday.
Prediction: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Image courtesy of Fox Searchlight
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
At one point, it seemed like this was Willem Dafoe's year. Just like Gary Oldman, it was a case of a long overdue veteran finally getting recognition for an unconventional performance. But as The Florida Project faded from the Oscar race, another contender swooped in to become the front-runner- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri's Sam Rockwell. While Jason Dixon has been one of the most controversial characters of this awards season, almost everyone agrees that Rockwell is sensational in the role. He has this one locked up- an upset would be nothing less than stunning.
Prediction: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Image courtesy of Focus Features
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
In theory, this category is also a lock. Allison Janney has won just about everything for her role as the acid-tongued LaVona Harding in I, Tonya, which makes her the easy favorite for the Oscars. But what's the fun in predicting the Oscars if you don't take a stab at a few upsets? Janney could very well be upset by either Lady Bird's Laurie Metcalf or Phantom Thread's Lesley Manville. But while Metcalf seemingly had her moment early in the race, I think much of the support for Manville's Cyril Woodcock has grown in recent weeks. I'm banking on some surprise fans of Phantom Thread in the Academy and going with Manville for the win.
Prediction: Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Image: Universal/IMDB
Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick
Jordan Peele Get Out
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor, The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Other than Best Picture, this is the toughest category of the night. I think it's safe to say that The Big Sick and The Shape of Water won't be winning here, but Lady Bird, Get Out, and Three Billboards all have a shot. Lady Bird won Best Screenplay at the Spirits last night, while Three Billboards has had quite a bit of support throughout the season. But I can't imagine a world where Get Out wins Best Picture without taking Best Original Screenplay as well. So I'm going with Jordan Peele's horror satire for the win, though don't be surprised to see some kind of upset here.
Prediction: Jordan Peele, Get Out
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Image: Sony Pictures Classics/IMDB
James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber, The Disaster Artist
Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green, Logan
Aaron Sorkin, Molly's Game
Virgil Williams and Dee Rees, Mudbound
I know some pundits think Virgil Williams and Dee Rees have a shot for their Mudbound screenplay, but this one is going to go to James Ivory for Call Me By Your Name. The veteran filmmaker wrote an acclaimed and beloved movie, and while Sony Pictures Classics dropped the ball on the campaign as a whole, I can't imagine that Luca Guadagnino's masterwork will go completely overlooked.
Prediction: James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Image: Disney/IMDB
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
Yeah, so Coco is gonna win this category. Any other film would be a genuine shock.
Prediction: Coco
BEST DOCUMENTARY FILM
Image courtesy of Netflix
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island
Agnes Varda and JR's Faces Places has a shot at Oscar glory, but I'm going with Icarus, the story of how the Russian Olympic doping scandal was broken open. Seems like a timely fit for this award.
Prediction: Icarus
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Image: Sony Pictures Classics/IMDB
The Insult
Loveless
On Body and Soul
The Square
This category is extraordinarily unpredictable, so I'm just going to take a shot in the dark and say that Sebastian Lelio's A Fantastic Woman walks away with the Oscar. It has the most exposure, and it seems to be more easy to like than, say, The Square.
Prediction: A Fantastic Woman
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Image courtesy of Fox Searchlight
Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk
Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread
Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water
John Williams, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Carter Burwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
It's down to Jonny Greenwood and Alexandre Desplat for the Oscar. Desplat has been winning all season for his dreamy score in Guillermo del Toro's The Shape of Water, while Greenwood is the cinephile favorite for his work in Paul Thomas Anderson's Phantom Thread. I'm predicting Desplat, but Greenwood pulling the upset would be a thrilling victory.
Prediction: Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Image courtesy of 20th Century Fox
"Mighty River" from Mudbound
"Mystery of Love" from Call Me By Your Name
"Remember Me" from Coco
"Stand Up for Something" from Marshall
"This is Me" from The Greatest Showman
This one is nearly impossible to predict. Will voters remember the emotional impact of Coco or the extravagant fun of The Greatest Showman? Or maybe they split the votes enough to allow Sufjan Stevens the chance to win for Call Me By Your Name? I'm going with a repeat for Pasek and Paul, but nothing would surprise me here.
Prediction: "This is Me" from The Greatest Showman
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Image courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures
Roger A. Deakins, Blade Runner 2049
Bruno Delbonnel, Darkest Hour
Hoyte van Hoytema, Dunkirk
Rachel Morrison, Mudbound
Dan Laustsen, The Shape of Water
It HAS to be Roger Deakins, right? Since Blade Runner 2049 premiered (or one could even argue since the very first trailer), pundits have been suggesting that this could finally be Deakins' year after 13 previous nominations. He'll face stiff competition from Hoyte van Hoytema and Dan Laustsen, but I have Deakins coming out on top.
Prediction: Roger A. Deakins, Blade Runner 2049
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Image courtesy of Focus Features
Jacqueline Durran, Beauty and the Beast
Jacqueline Durran, Darkest Hour
Mark Bridges, Phantom Thread
Luis Sequeira, The Shape of Water
Consolata Boyle, Victoria & Abdul
Plenty of good costumes in this category, but I'm going with the movie that's literally about making clothes.
Prediction: Mark Bridges, Phantom Thread
BEST FILM EDITING
Image courtesy of Sony
Paul Machliss and Jonathan Amos, Baby Driver
Lee Smith, Dunkirk
Tatiana S. Riegel, I, Tonya
Sidney Wolinsky, The Shape of Water
Jon Gregory, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
This is a competitive category, as Baby Driver's Paul Machliss and Jonathan Amos have come on strong at the very last minute to pose a challenge to Dunkirk's Lee Smith. While the astonishing cross-cutting of the war epic would seem like an easy fit for Best Film Editing, I'm going with the more kinetically striking, invigorating work in Edgar Wright's musical car chase flick.
Prediction: Paul Machliss and Jonathan Amos, Baby Driver
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Image courtesy of Fox Searchlight
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
The Shape of Water is the heavy favorite on Gold Derby, but I think it faces a major challenge in Blade Runner 2049. Both are spectacular sci-fi movies, and I wouldn't be surprised to see either win. I'm going with Guillermo del Toro's film, simply because I think a whopping 13 nominations has to result in at least 3 wins.
Prediction: The Shape of Water
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Image courtesy of Focus Features
Darkest Hour
Victoria & Abdul
Wonder
The movie where they made Gary Oldman look like Winston Churchill is gonna win. Next.
Prediction: Darkest Hour
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Image courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures
Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
While I feel bad for War for the Planet of the Apes, I have a feeling that we're going to see Denis Villeneuve's Blade Runner 2049 take the prize here. The VFX team may not have designed human-like apes, but they did create some killer special effects in a visually staggering film.
Prediction: Blade Runner 2049
BEST SOUND EDITING
Image courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
I have both categories going to Dunkirk, one of the most impressive films I've ever heard from a sound standpoint. Impeccable work.
Prediction: Dunkirk
BEST SOUND MIXING
Image courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Read above.
Prediction: Dunkirk
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Dear Basketball
Garden Party
Lou
Negative Space
Revolting Rhymes
I usually don't know much about the short categories, if I'm being completely honest. I only know that Kobe Bryant's Dear Basketball is the favorite here- should be an easy win for the most high-profile short.
Prediction: Dear Basketball
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
DeKalb Elementary
The Eleven O'Clock
My Nephew Emmett
The Silent Child
Watu Wote/All of Us
DeKalb Elementary is the Gold Derby favorite, but I'm going with The Silent Child upset.
Prediction: The Silent Child
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Edith + Eddie
Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Heroin(e)
Knife Skills
Traffic Stop
Edith + Eddie seems to be the one with the most momentum.
Prediction: Edith + Eddie
My predictions have the Academy spreading the wealth this year, with Guillermo del Toro's The Shape of Water leading all winners with just 3 victories. That being said, it's sure to be an unpredictable night. This season has been filled with ups and downs, and we're in for a spectacular finish.
Check back tonight for more coverage from the 90th annual Oscars.
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