This has been a bizarre Oscar season, mainly due to the wave of sexual harassment and assault allegations that have gutted Hollywood since the bombshell Harvey Weinstein reports. The celebratory mood has dimmed significantly, and the unpredictable crop of movies has led to a race that is totally up in the air. Nonetheless, the race is moving forward, and the Golden Globes will be handed out tonight by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. Despite its reputation as Hollywood's biggest party, the Globes will likely be a "darker" affair this year, so it'll be interesting to see how the nominees respond. These awards rarely have an impact on the Oscars, but they're interesting in their own right. Here are my (un)educated guesses at who will be taking home the golden statues tonight!
Best Motion Picture- Drama
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Prediction: The Shape of Water
Guillermo del Toro's unconventional love story picked up the most nominations at the Globes, which makes it the default favorite in this category. I also wouldn't be shocked to see some kind of upset here- Martin McDonagh's Three Billboards probably has the best chance at a surprise victory. Luca Guadagnino's Call Me By Your Name and Steven Spielberg's The Post are outliers, and as much as I love Dunkirk, I can't see it winning.
Best Motion Picture- Comedy or Musical
The Disaster Artist
Get Out
The Greatest Showman
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
Prediction: Lady Bird
I, Tonya could pull a shocking upset, building off the momentum that it has steadily built over the last few weeks. Or the HFPA could decided to anger everyone by going with The Greatest Showman, the much-maligned musical that didn't really even deserve to be in the field. But the best bet is Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig's acclaimed self-autobiographical comedy that pretty much everyone loves. While pundits and fans would love to see a Get Out victory, Lady Bird is my pick.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture- Drama
Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Meryl Streep, The Post
Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World
Prediction: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The HFPA clearly loves Three Billboards, and I have a feeling that they're going to want to spread the wealth this year. They could choose Meryl Streep just to hear her make a passionate speech, but my pick is Frances McDormand, who is marvelous in Martin McDonagh's tragicomedy.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture- Drama
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Tom Hanks, The Post
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Prediction: Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Gary Oldman is the smart choice here for his performance as Winston Churchill, but I'm going with Call Me By Your Name's Timothee Chalamet, a growing favorite in a race that seems determined to not give the prize to Oldman. Chalamet is incredible as tortured young Elio, and if the HFPA wants to recognize the acclaimed love story, this is the category to do it.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture- Comedy or Musical
Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seeker
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
Prediction: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
This is the closest race of the night- I have to imagine the voting margin between Margot Robbie and Saoirse Ronan will be extremely small. Robbie could cement her front-runner status in a competitive category at the Oscars, but I'm sticking to my guns and going with Ronan for the decidedly less controversial film.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture- Comedy or Musical
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Prediction: James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluyya and Hugh Jackman could pull off a surprise victory, but this is James Franco's race to lose. He steals the show as infamous filmmaker Tommy Wiseau, and it's impossible to take your eyes off him. He deserves the award for a hilarious physical and vocal transformation.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Prediction: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
At the moment, it's a two-way race between Allison Janney and Laurie Metcalf. While the Globes aren't good for much, they could clear up some uncertainty in what will likely be a highly competitive category. Metcalf could come away with the win, but if the HFPA is spreading the wealth, my money is on Janney for her nightmarish portrait of the domineering LaVona Harding.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Prediction: Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Everyone laughed and rolled their eyes when Christopher Plummer was nominated for a performance he did only a month ago, but if we're being honest, he very well could win tonight. Plummer's good in the film, and while the nomination might be the win in this scenario, I'm betting that the octogenarian will upset the heavily favored Willem Dafoe and Sam Rockwell.
Best Director- Motion Picture
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World
Steven Spielberg, The Post
Prediction: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
As much as I would love to see Christopher Nolan win in this category, I don't think it's going to happen. Guillermo del Toro is picking up steam in the Oscar race, and I think that momentum will translate to a win here.
Best Screenplay- Motion Picture
Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Liz Hannah and Josh Singer, The Post
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Aaron Sorkin, Molly's Game
Prediction: Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Lady Bird seems like the smart choice, but we could be underestimating the strength of Martin McDonagh's acidic, brutal screenplay for the beloved Three Billboards. It's a great piece of work, and I think McDonagh walks away with the win.
Best Motion Picture- Animated
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
Prediction: Coco
It's gonna be Coco. Next.
Best Motion Picture- Foreign Language
A Fantastic Woman
First They Killed My Father
In the Fade
Loveless
The Square
Prediction: The Square
I know nothing about the Foreign Language race this year, but Gold Derby has Ruben Ostlund's The Square as a heavy favorite. So The Square it is!
Best Original Score- Motion Picture
Carter Burwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water
Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread
John Williams, The Post
Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk
Prediction: Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread
This is an interesting race for a number of reasons. Jonny Greenwood's score for cinephile favorite Phantom Thread has racked up a ton of awards, but is this something that only hardcore Paul Thomas Anderson fans can appreciate? I'm not entirely sure, but I'm going out on a limb and choosing Greenwood's score anyways. He deserves the appreciation.
Best Original Song- Motion Picture
"Home" from Ferdinand
"Mighty River" from Mudbound
"Remember Me" from Coco
"The Star" from The Star
"This Is Me" from The Greatest Showman
Prediction: "Remember Me" from Coco
I swear, if The Greatest Showman beats the most emotional song of the year.....
I'm not gonna pretend that I have any precise knowledge of how the Globes will go this year. It's an unpredictable, challenging race, and there's no La La Land to sweep the whole thing this time around. But even I get them all wrong, it's sure to be a fun night. Check back tomorrow for more reviews and a recap of Hollywood's biggest party.
Best Motion Picture- Drama
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Prediction: The Shape of Water
Guillermo del Toro's unconventional love story picked up the most nominations at the Globes, which makes it the default favorite in this category. I also wouldn't be shocked to see some kind of upset here- Martin McDonagh's Three Billboards probably has the best chance at a surprise victory. Luca Guadagnino's Call Me By Your Name and Steven Spielberg's The Post are outliers, and as much as I love Dunkirk, I can't see it winning.
Best Motion Picture- Comedy or Musical
The Disaster Artist
Get Out
The Greatest Showman
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
Prediction: Lady Bird
I, Tonya could pull a shocking upset, building off the momentum that it has steadily built over the last few weeks. Or the HFPA could decided to anger everyone by going with The Greatest Showman, the much-maligned musical that didn't really even deserve to be in the field. But the best bet is Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig's acclaimed self-autobiographical comedy that pretty much everyone loves. While pundits and fans would love to see a Get Out victory, Lady Bird is my pick.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture- Drama
Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Meryl Streep, The Post
Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World
Prediction: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The HFPA clearly loves Three Billboards, and I have a feeling that they're going to want to spread the wealth this year. They could choose Meryl Streep just to hear her make a passionate speech, but my pick is Frances McDormand, who is marvelous in Martin McDonagh's tragicomedy.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture- Drama
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Tom Hanks, The Post
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Prediction: Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Gary Oldman is the smart choice here for his performance as Winston Churchill, but I'm going with Call Me By Your Name's Timothee Chalamet, a growing favorite in a race that seems determined to not give the prize to Oldman. Chalamet is incredible as tortured young Elio, and if the HFPA wants to recognize the acclaimed love story, this is the category to do it.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture- Comedy or Musical
Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seeker
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
Prediction: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
This is the closest race of the night- I have to imagine the voting margin between Margot Robbie and Saoirse Ronan will be extremely small. Robbie could cement her front-runner status in a competitive category at the Oscars, but I'm sticking to my guns and going with Ronan for the decidedly less controversial film.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture- Comedy or Musical
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Prediction: James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluyya and Hugh Jackman could pull off a surprise victory, but this is James Franco's race to lose. He steals the show as infamous filmmaker Tommy Wiseau, and it's impossible to take your eyes off him. He deserves the award for a hilarious physical and vocal transformation.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Prediction: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
At the moment, it's a two-way race between Allison Janney and Laurie Metcalf. While the Globes aren't good for much, they could clear up some uncertainty in what will likely be a highly competitive category. Metcalf could come away with the win, but if the HFPA is spreading the wealth, my money is on Janney for her nightmarish portrait of the domineering LaVona Harding.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Prediction: Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Everyone laughed and rolled their eyes when Christopher Plummer was nominated for a performance he did only a month ago, but if we're being honest, he very well could win tonight. Plummer's good in the film, and while the nomination might be the win in this scenario, I'm betting that the octogenarian will upset the heavily favored Willem Dafoe and Sam Rockwell.
Best Director- Motion Picture
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World
Steven Spielberg, The Post
Prediction: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
As much as I would love to see Christopher Nolan win in this category, I don't think it's going to happen. Guillermo del Toro is picking up steam in the Oscar race, and I think that momentum will translate to a win here.
Best Screenplay- Motion Picture
Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Liz Hannah and Josh Singer, The Post
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Aaron Sorkin, Molly's Game
Prediction: Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Lady Bird seems like the smart choice, but we could be underestimating the strength of Martin McDonagh's acidic, brutal screenplay for the beloved Three Billboards. It's a great piece of work, and I think McDonagh walks away with the win.
Best Motion Picture- Animated
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
Prediction: Coco
It's gonna be Coco. Next.
Best Motion Picture- Foreign Language
A Fantastic Woman
First They Killed My Father
In the Fade
Loveless
The Square
Prediction: The Square
I know nothing about the Foreign Language race this year, but Gold Derby has Ruben Ostlund's The Square as a heavy favorite. So The Square it is!
Best Original Score- Motion Picture
Carter Burwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water
Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread
John Williams, The Post
Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk
Prediction: Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread
This is an interesting race for a number of reasons. Jonny Greenwood's score for cinephile favorite Phantom Thread has racked up a ton of awards, but is this something that only hardcore Paul Thomas Anderson fans can appreciate? I'm not entirely sure, but I'm going out on a limb and choosing Greenwood's score anyways. He deserves the appreciation.
Best Original Song- Motion Picture
"Home" from Ferdinand
"Mighty River" from Mudbound
"Remember Me" from Coco
"The Star" from The Star
"This Is Me" from The Greatest Showman
Prediction: "Remember Me" from Coco
I swear, if The Greatest Showman beats the most emotional song of the year.....
I'm not gonna pretend that I have any precise knowledge of how the Globes will go this year. It's an unpredictable, challenging race, and there's no La La Land to sweep the whole thing this time around. But even I get them all wrong, it's sure to be a fun night. Check back tomorrow for more reviews and a recap of Hollywood's biggest party.
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