I don't know about you guys, but I'm kind of over the Oscar race at this point. We still have over a month to go, which means that some of the best movies of 2017 will be re-litigated for 40 more days in the name of gold statues. Despite the unpredictability of this year's race, it has still managed to be a somewhat flat affair. Maybe it's because some of my favorite films have faltered, or maybe it's just because the Oscar race feels wrong at a time when sexual misconduct allegations are still sweeping Hollywood. Whatever the case may be, I'm just not feeling it.
But tomorrow is a crucial stop on the seemingly endless awards season, as the nominations for the 90th annual Academy Awards are finally revealed. There will be snubs, there will be surprises, but in the end, we'll have a much better picture of where this race is headed at the end of the day. I don't have nearly as much to say this year as I have in past years, nor am I especially confident in predictions. But in the name of traditions, I figured I'd offer my predictions for tomorrow's nominations in all categories, except for the awards for short films (sorry to those filmmakers). Here are my predictions, along with some commentary in select categories:
BEST PICTURE
Image courtesy of Fox Searchlight
1. The Shape of Water
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Get Out
4. Lady Bird
5. Dunkirk
6. Call Me By Your Name
7. The Post
If there's 8
8. I, Tonya
If there's 9
9. The Big Sick
If there's 10
10. The Florida Project
The first five movies listed above are guarantees for Best Picture. If any of those films, I will be stunned beyond belief. After that, things get much more dicey. Call Me By Your Name should be safe, but everyone in the industry agrees that Sony Pictures Classics completely and totally botched the release with an extended two-month rollout. Does that hurt it with the Oscar voters? The Post is doing well at the box office, but it never really caught fire, missing out on crucial nominations at the SAG Awards and the BAFTAs. Does Steven Spielberg's film fall on its face tomorrow? Right now, I think both of these films are in. But it wouldn't stun me if either film missed the cut.
At the #8 slot, I have Craig Gillespie's I, Tonya. It's a film that seems to have gained motivation in recent weeks, and it has a very good shot of sneaking in at the last minute. With nominations at the Critics Choice, the Producers Guild, and the SAG, I have a good feeling about Michael Showalter's The Big Sick. But then again, it's a summer release, and it's more of a crowd-pleaser than a direct Oscar play. In tenth, I have Sean Baker's The Florida Project, a beloved film that has seemingly vanished into thin air. Many still think that it gets in here, but considering how much Willem Dafoe has faltered in Best Supporting Actor recently, I'm far from confident.
On the outside looking in, I have Dee Rees's Mudbound, Patty Jenkins's Wonder Woman, and Joe Wright's Darkest Hour. Mudbound is hurt by its status as a Netflix film, Wonder Woman never caught fire this awards season, and Darkest Hour is far too traditional for this year.
BEST DIRECTOR
Image courtesy of Fox Searchlight
1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
2. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
3. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
4. Jordan Peele, Get Out
5. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Many believe that the Directors Guild got it right when they chose these five filmmakers to be nominated for their annual award. Despite the fact that the Oscars and the DGA never match up, I can't imagine it's going to be anyone else this year. The Florida Project's Sean Baker, Call Me By Your Name's Luca Guadagnino, and Blade Runner 2049's Denis Villeneuve all have an outside shot, but who would you take off the list? The push for Gerwig and Peele undoubtedly reached the Academy, and del Toro is a lock. Three Billboards isn't that much of a directorial powerhouse, but with that film's strength in the race, can McDonagh really miss here? And while some have speculated that Christopher Nolan could miss the cut, I would be so beyond flabbergasted that I don't even want to fathom it. This category could get interesting tomorrow, but I'm not preparing for many surprises.
BEST ACTOR
Image courtesy of Focus Features
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
2. Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist
5. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Oldman, Chalamet, and Kaluuya are all in. And while the sexual harassment allegations against James Franco decimated any minuscule chance he had of winning the award, the news came out just one day before the end of voting. For better or worse, he'll be nominated. And then there's Daniel Day-Lewis for his portrayal of Reynolds Woodcock in Phantom Thread. It's supposedly his last performance- and there's no way that Tom Hanks, Denzel Washington, or Jake Gyllenhaal beats him out for that final slot.
BEST ACTRESS
Image courtesy of Fox Searchlight
1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
3. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
5. Meryl Streep, The Post
This category was loaded earlier in the year, but things settled down pretty quickly and a clear set of contenders emerged. McDormand, Ronan, Hawkins, Robbie, Streep- these are your five. Jessica Chastain could stun and sneak in for Molly's Game, or Judi Dench could pull the upset for Victoria and Abdul, but I'm not counting on it.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Image courtesy of Fox Searchlight
1. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
4. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
5. Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Now this is an insanely difficult category to predict. Rockwell and Dafoe are most certainly going to be nominated, but after that, who knows? I think Richard Jenkins is safe for his tender, likable turn in The Shape of Water, but did the excitement over the Christopher Plummer replacement peak too early? Nobody is talking about that film or that performance anymore, so it could conceivably miss the cut. I'm hopeful that either Armie Hammer or Michael Stuhlbarg make it for Call Me By Your Name, but Woody Harrelson could very well get a nomination for his performance in Three Billboards. Nothing would surprise me too much here.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Image courtesy of NEON
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
3. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
4. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
5. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
With Downsizing's Hong Chau failing to ignite much buzz, I can't see any surprises in this category. Maybe Phantom Thread's Lesley Manville or Girls Trip's Tiffany Haddish? Long shots at best, though.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Image: Universal/IMDB
1. Jordan Peele, Get Out
2. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
4. Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor, The Shape of Water
5. Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. Gordon, The Big Sick
I'm going with the smart money in this category. Though it wouldn't surprise me to see Paul Thomas Anderson's Phantom Thread in here, especially since Inherent Vice made the cut just a few years ago.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Image: Sony Classics/IMDB
1. James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
2. Michael H. Weber and Scott Neustadter, The Disaster Artist
3. Aaron Sorkin, Molly's Game
4. Virgil Williams and Dee Rees, Mudbound
5. Scott Frank, James Mangold, and Michael Green, Logan
If we're being honest, there are really only six films that could even possibly be nominated in this category. It's a very, very weak year. As much as I love Stephen Chbosky's Wonder, I don't think it gets in here. Logan may not have gotten the love it deserved this awards season, but it'll get some recognition in Best Adapted Screenplay.
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Image: Pixar/IMDB
1. Coco
2. The Breadwinner
3. Loving Vincent
4. The LEGO Batman Movie
5. The Boss Baby
It's Coco and then the rest of the pack. I'm feeling very confident about The Breadwinner and Loving Vincent, but less so about everything else.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FILM
1. Jane
2. Faces Places
3. Icarus
4. LA 92
5. City of Ghosts
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Image courtesy of Magnolia Pictures
1. The Square
2. A Fantastic Woman
3. Foxtrot
4. Loveless
5. In the Fade
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water
2. Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread
3. Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk
4. Carter Burwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. John Williams, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Williams will be nominated for either Star Wars or The Post, but I think that this is where Three Billboards will show some surprising strength. I'm thinking it's going to be a very bad morning for Darkest Hour, only made worse by missing Best Original Score.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Image: Pixar/IMDB
1. "Remember Me" from Coco
2. "Mystery of Love" from Call Me By Your Name
3. "This is Me" from The Greatest Showman
4. "Mighty River" from Mudbound
5. "Evermore" from Beauty and the Beast
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049
2. Hoyte van Hoytema, Dunkirk
3. Dan Laustsen, The Shape of Water
4. Sayombhu Mukdeeprom, Call Me By Your Name
5. Rachel Morrison, Mudbound
Rachel Morrison is the biggest surprise here, once again defeating Darkest Hour. I might be overestimating that film's weakness, but I think Morrison's work won't go unappreciated.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Images courtesy of Focus Features
1. Mark Bridges, Phantom Thread
2. Jacqueline Durran, Beauty and the Beast
3. Luis Sequeira, The Shape of Water
4. Jacqueline Durran, Darkest Hour
5. Ellen Mirojnick, The Greatest Showman
BEST FILM EDITING
1. Lee Smith, Dunkirk
2. Jonathan Amos and Paul Machliss, Baby Driver
3. Sidney Wolinsky, The Shape of Water
4. Jon Gregory, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Joe Walker, Blade Runner 2049
This is a tricky category. Film Editing is usually a predictor of Best Picture, so it matters for films like The Shape of Water and Get Out. If Three Billboards misses here, it strikes a bit of a blow to its Best Picture chances. I think Get Out falls short instead, but this one is fascinating for sure.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Image courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures
1. Blade Runner 2049
2. The Shape of Water
3. Dunkirk
4. Beauty and the Beast
5. Phantom Thread
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
1. Darkest Hour
2. Wonder
3. Bright
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Image courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures
1. Blade Runner 2049
2. War for the Planet of the Apes
3. The Shape of Water
4. Dunkirk
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
BEST SOUND EDITING
1. Dunkirk
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Baby Driver
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
5. The Shape of Water
BEST SOUND MIXING
Image courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures
1. Dunkirk
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Baby Driver
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
5. The Greatest Showman
So if you're counting, here's how many nominations you can expect for each film:
-The Shape of Water- 13
-Dunkirk- 9
-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri- 7
-Blade Runner 2049- 6
-Call Me By Your Name- 6
-Lady Bird- 5
-Get Out- 4
-Mudbound- 4
-Phantom Thread- 4
-Star Wars: The Last Jedi- 4
-Baby Driver- 3
-Beauty and the Beast- 3
-The Big Sick- 3
-Darkest Hour- 3
-The Greatest Showman- 3
-I, Tonya- 3
-Coco- 2
-The Disaster Artist- 2
-The Florida Project- 2
-The Post- 2
And that's it- come back tomorrow to see just how wrong I was!
But tomorrow is a crucial stop on the seemingly endless awards season, as the nominations for the 90th annual Academy Awards are finally revealed. There will be snubs, there will be surprises, but in the end, we'll have a much better picture of where this race is headed at the end of the day. I don't have nearly as much to say this year as I have in past years, nor am I especially confident in predictions. But in the name of traditions, I figured I'd offer my predictions for tomorrow's nominations in all categories, except for the awards for short films (sorry to those filmmakers). Here are my predictions, along with some commentary in select categories:
BEST PICTURE
Image courtesy of Fox Searchlight
1. The Shape of Water
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Get Out
4. Lady Bird
5. Dunkirk
6. Call Me By Your Name
7. The Post
If there's 8
8. I, Tonya
If there's 9
9. The Big Sick
If there's 10
10. The Florida Project
The first five movies listed above are guarantees for Best Picture. If any of those films, I will be stunned beyond belief. After that, things get much more dicey. Call Me By Your Name should be safe, but everyone in the industry agrees that Sony Pictures Classics completely and totally botched the release with an extended two-month rollout. Does that hurt it with the Oscar voters? The Post is doing well at the box office, but it never really caught fire, missing out on crucial nominations at the SAG Awards and the BAFTAs. Does Steven Spielberg's film fall on its face tomorrow? Right now, I think both of these films are in. But it wouldn't stun me if either film missed the cut.
At the #8 slot, I have Craig Gillespie's I, Tonya. It's a film that seems to have gained motivation in recent weeks, and it has a very good shot of sneaking in at the last minute. With nominations at the Critics Choice, the Producers Guild, and the SAG, I have a good feeling about Michael Showalter's The Big Sick. But then again, it's a summer release, and it's more of a crowd-pleaser than a direct Oscar play. In tenth, I have Sean Baker's The Florida Project, a beloved film that has seemingly vanished into thin air. Many still think that it gets in here, but considering how much Willem Dafoe has faltered in Best Supporting Actor recently, I'm far from confident.
On the outside looking in, I have Dee Rees's Mudbound, Patty Jenkins's Wonder Woman, and Joe Wright's Darkest Hour. Mudbound is hurt by its status as a Netflix film, Wonder Woman never caught fire this awards season, and Darkest Hour is far too traditional for this year.
BEST DIRECTOR
Image courtesy of Fox Searchlight
1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
2. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
3. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
4. Jordan Peele, Get Out
5. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Many believe that the Directors Guild got it right when they chose these five filmmakers to be nominated for their annual award. Despite the fact that the Oscars and the DGA never match up, I can't imagine it's going to be anyone else this year. The Florida Project's Sean Baker, Call Me By Your Name's Luca Guadagnino, and Blade Runner 2049's Denis Villeneuve all have an outside shot, but who would you take off the list? The push for Gerwig and Peele undoubtedly reached the Academy, and del Toro is a lock. Three Billboards isn't that much of a directorial powerhouse, but with that film's strength in the race, can McDonagh really miss here? And while some have speculated that Christopher Nolan could miss the cut, I would be so beyond flabbergasted that I don't even want to fathom it. This category could get interesting tomorrow, but I'm not preparing for many surprises.
BEST ACTOR
Image courtesy of Focus Features
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
2. Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist
5. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Oldman, Chalamet, and Kaluuya are all in. And while the sexual harassment allegations against James Franco decimated any minuscule chance he had of winning the award, the news came out just one day before the end of voting. For better or worse, he'll be nominated. And then there's Daniel Day-Lewis for his portrayal of Reynolds Woodcock in Phantom Thread. It's supposedly his last performance- and there's no way that Tom Hanks, Denzel Washington, or Jake Gyllenhaal beats him out for that final slot.
BEST ACTRESS
Image courtesy of Fox Searchlight
1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
3. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
5. Meryl Streep, The Post
This category was loaded earlier in the year, but things settled down pretty quickly and a clear set of contenders emerged. McDormand, Ronan, Hawkins, Robbie, Streep- these are your five. Jessica Chastain could stun and sneak in for Molly's Game, or Judi Dench could pull the upset for Victoria and Abdul, but I'm not counting on it.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Image courtesy of Fox Searchlight
1. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
4. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
5. Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Now this is an insanely difficult category to predict. Rockwell and Dafoe are most certainly going to be nominated, but after that, who knows? I think Richard Jenkins is safe for his tender, likable turn in The Shape of Water, but did the excitement over the Christopher Plummer replacement peak too early? Nobody is talking about that film or that performance anymore, so it could conceivably miss the cut. I'm hopeful that either Armie Hammer or Michael Stuhlbarg make it for Call Me By Your Name, but Woody Harrelson could very well get a nomination for his performance in Three Billboards. Nothing would surprise me too much here.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Image courtesy of NEON
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
3. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
4. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
5. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
With Downsizing's Hong Chau failing to ignite much buzz, I can't see any surprises in this category. Maybe Phantom Thread's Lesley Manville or Girls Trip's Tiffany Haddish? Long shots at best, though.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Image: Universal/IMDB
1. Jordan Peele, Get Out
2. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
4. Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor, The Shape of Water
5. Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. Gordon, The Big Sick
I'm going with the smart money in this category. Though it wouldn't surprise me to see Paul Thomas Anderson's Phantom Thread in here, especially since Inherent Vice made the cut just a few years ago.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Image: Sony Classics/IMDB
1. James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
2. Michael H. Weber and Scott Neustadter, The Disaster Artist
3. Aaron Sorkin, Molly's Game
4. Virgil Williams and Dee Rees, Mudbound
5. Scott Frank, James Mangold, and Michael Green, Logan
If we're being honest, there are really only six films that could even possibly be nominated in this category. It's a very, very weak year. As much as I love Stephen Chbosky's Wonder, I don't think it gets in here. Logan may not have gotten the love it deserved this awards season, but it'll get some recognition in Best Adapted Screenplay.
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Image: Pixar/IMDB
1. Coco
2. The Breadwinner
3. Loving Vincent
4. The LEGO Batman Movie
5. The Boss Baby
It's Coco and then the rest of the pack. I'm feeling very confident about The Breadwinner and Loving Vincent, but less so about everything else.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FILM
1. Jane
2. Faces Places
3. Icarus
4. LA 92
5. City of Ghosts
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Image courtesy of Magnolia Pictures
1. The Square
2. A Fantastic Woman
3. Foxtrot
4. Loveless
5. In the Fade
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water
2. Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread
3. Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk
4. Carter Burwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. John Williams, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Williams will be nominated for either Star Wars or The Post, but I think that this is where Three Billboards will show some surprising strength. I'm thinking it's going to be a very bad morning for Darkest Hour, only made worse by missing Best Original Score.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Image: Pixar/IMDB
1. "Remember Me" from Coco
2. "Mystery of Love" from Call Me By Your Name
3. "This is Me" from The Greatest Showman
4. "Mighty River" from Mudbound
5. "Evermore" from Beauty and the Beast
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049
2. Hoyte van Hoytema, Dunkirk
3. Dan Laustsen, The Shape of Water
4. Sayombhu Mukdeeprom, Call Me By Your Name
5. Rachel Morrison, Mudbound
Rachel Morrison is the biggest surprise here, once again defeating Darkest Hour. I might be overestimating that film's weakness, but I think Morrison's work won't go unappreciated.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Images courtesy of Focus Features
1. Mark Bridges, Phantom Thread
2. Jacqueline Durran, Beauty and the Beast
3. Luis Sequeira, The Shape of Water
4. Jacqueline Durran, Darkest Hour
5. Ellen Mirojnick, The Greatest Showman
BEST FILM EDITING
1. Lee Smith, Dunkirk
2. Jonathan Amos and Paul Machliss, Baby Driver
3. Sidney Wolinsky, The Shape of Water
4. Jon Gregory, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Joe Walker, Blade Runner 2049
This is a tricky category. Film Editing is usually a predictor of Best Picture, so it matters for films like The Shape of Water and Get Out. If Three Billboards misses here, it strikes a bit of a blow to its Best Picture chances. I think Get Out falls short instead, but this one is fascinating for sure.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Image courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures
1. Blade Runner 2049
2. The Shape of Water
3. Dunkirk
4. Beauty and the Beast
5. Phantom Thread
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
1. Darkest Hour
2. Wonder
3. Bright
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Image courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures
1. Blade Runner 2049
2. War for the Planet of the Apes
3. The Shape of Water
4. Dunkirk
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
BEST SOUND EDITING
1. Dunkirk
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Baby Driver
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
5. The Shape of Water
BEST SOUND MIXING
Image courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures
1. Dunkirk
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Baby Driver
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
5. The Greatest Showman
So if you're counting, here's how many nominations you can expect for each film:
-The Shape of Water- 13
-Dunkirk- 9
-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri- 7
-Blade Runner 2049- 6
-Call Me By Your Name- 6
-Lady Bird- 5
-Get Out- 4
-Mudbound- 4
-Phantom Thread- 4
-Star Wars: The Last Jedi- 4
-Baby Driver- 3
-Beauty and the Beast- 3
-The Big Sick- 3
-Darkest Hour- 3
-The Greatest Showman- 3
-I, Tonya- 3
-Coco- 2
-The Disaster Artist- 2
-The Florida Project- 2
-The Post- 2
And that's it- come back tomorrow to see just how wrong I was!
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