We're halfway through the month of September, which means that the first leg of the festival season is over. Venice and Telluride are long gone, and the Toronto International Film Festival wrapped up today. So just over a month after my first predictions, how has the race changed? With New York on the horizon, let's take a look at the state of the Oscar race after the three biggest film festivals of the year. Here are my current predictions:
BEST PICTURE
Image courtesy of Warner Bros.
1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. The Post
4. Call Me By Your Name
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6. Darkest Hour
7. Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Movie
8. Lady Bird
9. Get Out
10. The Florida Project
11. Last Flag Flying
12. Blade Runner 2049
13. Battle of the Sexes
14. Wonder Woman
15. The Big Sick
If you're the Dunkirk campaign at Warner Bros., you're breathing a sigh of relief after this first wave of festivals. Not because there aren't any films that will challenge Christopher Nolan's World War II thriller- as I'll get to in a second, there definitely are some contenders. But nothing from Venice, Telluride, or Toronto emerged as an overwhelming favorite, the kind of jaw-dropping Oscar movie that stops pundits and audiences in their tracks. You could argue that Moonlight didn't have that kind of "it" factor last year, although as someone who was in the house for the emotional TIFF premiere at the Winter Garden theater, I beg to differ. But based on what we have seen, Dunkirk is still the front-runner. Guillermo del Toro's The Shape of Water is running a close second, and while I know that the Academy has a rapidly changing demographic due to membership adjustments over the past few years, I'm still taking the formally daring World War II drama over the strange science fiction movie any days of the week. The Academy is fine embracing indie films and small-scale offerings, but sci-fi is a hurdle that they haven't been able to jump yet.
Obviously the big unknown question here is The Post, Steven Spielberg's new film that was rushed into production solely on the basis of its topicality. Even in the era of Trumpian politics and attacks against the fourth estate, I'm struggling to see a world where another workmanlike portrayal of journalists wins Best Picture. Maybe I'm reading the room wrong, but something about the way The Post came together and Spielberg's recent track record of sturdy, conventional dramas has left me deeply skeptical. I think we can count on a nomination for Call Me By Your Name, as it continues to receive rave reviews and emotional reactions out of the festivals. It doesn't feel like a winner to me, and Sony Pictures Classics notoriously has trouble mounting successful campaigns, but it's one to watch out for.
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is a true contender- the raves coming out of Venice and Toronto were very, very strong, and the film took home the People's Choice Award at TIFF. It's here to stay. Darkest Hour is seemingly too ordinary to be a winner, and Focus Features will likely center their efforts on ensuring that Gary Oldman gets his due, but I have to imagine that the Winston Churchill biopic will be warmly embraced by the more traditional members of the Academy. Paul Thomas Anderson's new film is still the great unknown of the awards season, and I'm keeping it in the top ten based on Anderson and Daniel Day Lewis' starpower alone. Nobody knows if it's even coming out this year, let alone if it's an Oscar player. Lady Bird was the other big surprise of the first wave, generating incredible passion and universal acclaim that could certainly translate to Oscar success. I think the jury is still out on whether it plays like The Edge of Seventeen or if it's a genuine contender, but it's one to keep an eye on. Jordan Peele's Get Out still feels like a risk to me, but Universal is pretty much going to be focusing their awards efforts entirely on the breakout social thriller. I imagine a big push is coming for the film, and especially for Peele's dynamite work.
Rounding out my top ten, I have Sean Baker's The Florida Project, which feels more and more like a legitimate contender every single day. The reception at TIFF was almost universally warm, and this seems like the kind of movie that will drum up support from a passionate fanbase. Sitting right on the bubble line are Last Flag Flying and Blade Runner 2049, two films that we haven't seen anything from as of yet. If both hit, expect the pressure to be put on Lady Bird and Get Out. Battle of the Sexes doesn't feel like an Oscar movie, but it very well could find its way in. Wonder Woman should be up there (as should Logan), but it takes the perfect storm to stick in the minds of voters- and I just don't think this film is it. The Big Sick is wonderful, but it's a screenplay nod waiting to happen.
But just as the early festivals cemented a variety of legitimate contenders, several films found themselves dead on arrival. After raves at Venice, Alexander Payne's Downsizing is practically out of the Best Picture race, emerging as something that is going to be way too divisive. George Clooney's Suburbicon was panned by most critics, and while there's quite a bit of discussion centered around Darren Aronofsky's genius mother!, it just isn't happening from an awards perspective. I think Todd Haynes' Wonderstruck is all but finished as well, and I can't see The Current War or Detroit sneaking in either. In terms of other stuff we haven't seen yet, I'm keeping an eye on The Greatest Showman and All the Money in the World even if they feel like outside chances at the moment.
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
3. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name
4. Paul Thomas Anderson, Untitled PTA Movie
5. Jordan Peele, Get Out
It's looking like Nolan vs. del Toro for Best Director this year, a battle between two filmmakers who are long overdue. Paul Thomas Anderson has the potential to radically change the conversation if his fashion film delivers, but as of now, I have him just as a nominee. Steven Spielberg could definitely be a factor as well, but let's be real, the Academy values showy, elaborate direction over solid, blunt filmmaking. How else do you explain Alejandro G. Inarritu winning two years in a row? Luca Guadagnino feels like a very solid bet, and I think you're going to see a push to get either Jordan Peele or Patty Jenkins in the race as a show of diversity behind the camera in today's industry. I have Peele getting the edge right now over some other films, but that could change as the season goes on. As for who has the advantage in the battle between Nolan and del Toro, my gut instinct says the former is the favorite. I love both filmmakers (although I certainly have more of an adoration for Nolan's films), but I think there's more of a sense in Hollywood that Nolan is overdue. The Shape of Water is arguably del Toro's second certified masterpiece (Pan's Labyrinth being the first), but Nolan is up to three or four depending on who you ask. Barring any surprises, he's your front-runner.
BEST ACTOR
Image courtesy of Focus Features
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
2. Daniel Day Lewis, Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Movie
3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist
5. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger
Gary Oldman is probably waiting with baited breath to see what Daniel Day Lewis does in Paul Thomas Anderson's next movie. Because unless the Hollywood icon delivers something as monumental as Daniel Plainview or Abraham Lincoln in his final role, Oldman is more than likely going to take home the statue for his role as Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour. Everyone else is just happy to be nominated. This is a competitive race this year, and I currently have actors like Denzel Washington and Tom Hanks missing the cut- the latter seems to have had particularly bad luck in recent years. Timothee Chalamet has received widespread praise for his role as a teenager exploring his burgeoning sexuality in Call Me By Your Name, and I think the love for that film is strong enough that he'll make the cut. The Disaster Artist played absurdly well at TIFF, and everybody seemed to be in love with James Franco's performance as Tommy Wiseau. And in a season with so many serious films, there's gonna be some love for a crazy comedic performance. Finally, Stronger got a nice reception at TIFF, much better than I originally anticipated. Jake Gyllenhaal has been snubbed before (most egregiously for Nightcrawler), but in this more prestigious role, I have to imagine that the Academy will be more attentive.
BEST ACTRESS
Image courtesy of Fox Searchlight
1. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
5. Meryl Streep, The Post
If the Best Actor race is weaker than usual, the Best Actress race is perhaps the strongest it has ever been. After all, my current predictions do not account for Lady Bird's Saoirse Ronan, Victoria & Abdul's Judi Dench, Molly's Game's Jessica Chastain, Wonder Wheel's Kate Winslet, and mother!'s Jennifer Lawrence. Any one of those five actresses could end up making the cut, and I would not be surprised in the slightest. And anyone who is ready to predict a win must be out of their mind. This race is far from over, and if I had to guess, this is one that will go down to the wire. Meryl Streep gets a nomination for just about anything, so I have to imagine that she'll be in contention for Spielberg's The Post. NEON has no experience running Oscar campaigns, but people really seem to like I, Tonya, and Margot Robbie is an actress who has only grown in esteem since her breakout role in The Wolf of Wall Street. This could very well be her Oscar moment.
Emma Stone feels like a shakier proposition for a reason that is out of her control- she won last year for La La Land. People love her in Battle of the Sexes, but I don't think it's the kind of knock-your-socks-off performance that warrants a back-to-back victory. For me, the two locks are Frances McDormand and Sally Hawkins. McDormand is almost always good, and it sounds like she's better than ever in Martin McDonagh's darkly comic crime saga. For now, I'm giving the edge to Hawkins, who supposedly delivers dynamite work as a mute janitor in Guillermo del Toro's Cold War fairy tale. Hawkins also received acclaim for her turn in Maudie, and I have a feeling that voters are going to want to recognize The Shape of Water in some capacity. That makes Hawkins the current front-runner, but this could change in an instant.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Image courtesy of A24
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
2. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
4. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk
The supporting categories rarely come into focus until the very last minute, but I think we're really starting to see this one come together. Three actors are currently sitting on the bubble line, as Darkest Hour's Ben Mendelsohn (I would love to see him get an Oscar nod after years of great work), The Shape of Water's Michael Shannon, and Mudbound's Jason Mitchell seem poised to make a run at a nomination. I have a feeling that Warner Bros. is going to push Mark Rylance hard for Dunkirk, as they'll need some kind of acting nomination to indicate to the larger voting body that the film is more than just a technical marvel. Sam Rockwell got some of the strongest notices for his performance as a racist cop in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, and I have a feeling that Martin McDonagh's black comedy will develop a reputation as an actor's movie. He's a likely bet for a nomination.
Then come the two supporting stars of Call Me By Your Name- Michael Stuhlbarg and Armie Hammer. Stuhlbarg's final monologue has been praised since the film premiered at Sundance, and Hammer is practically a co-lead with Timothee Chalamet. Depending on how well it connects with the larger voting body, we could definitely see both actors snag a nomination. But ultimately, their competition with each other would lead to a win for Willem Dafoe, who will likely be the focus of A24's campaign for The Florida Project. Even judging by the trailer, Dafoe appears to deliver a masterfully emotional performance, and he's one of those supporting actors who has created an incredible body of work without recognition from the Academy. This could very well be his year.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Image courtesy of Lionsgate
1. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
2. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
3. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
4. Allison Janney, I, Tonya
5. Hong Chau, Downsizing
If Supporting Actor is really coming together, then I would say that Supporting Actress is a little shakier at the moment. The field is narrowing, but there are still several unknowns, especially Sarah Paulson in The Post and Lesley Manville in Paul Thomas Anderson's still untitled film. I think Mary J. Blige in Mudbound is a strong possibility with the right push, and the same can be said for Darkest Hour's Kristin Scott Thomas, mother!'s Michelle Pfeiffer, and Novitiate's Melissa Leo. But for now, these are the five best bets, and I think a few of them can be counted as locks. Downsizing's Hong Chau is the shakiest proposition, as the character has already been positioned as a stereotypical caricature in some circles. But her performance will have as many supporters as detractors, and that could be enough to push her to a nomination.
Allison Janney received endless praise for her turn in I, Tonya, and I would place her higher if not for my uncertainty over NEON's campaign. Octavia Spencer is a perpetual player in this category, and she looks to deliver another great performance in The Shape of Water. But ultimately, this year's race will come down to two prickly moms- Holly Hunter in The Big Sick and Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird. Their chances hinge on how much the Academy takes to their respective films, and right now, I think the response to Lady Bird and specifically Metcalf's performance is out of this world. She has the edge, but it's still early in this category.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Image: Universal/IMDB
1. Jordan Peele, Get Out
2. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. Gordon, The Big Sick
4. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
5. Liz Hannah and Josh Singer, The Post
As always, Best Original Screenplay is stacked this year. And this is a category where auteurs like Paul Thomas Anderson and Alexander Payne could be recognized for films that don't resonate with the Academy at large. That being said, the competition is so stiff this year that I can't see anything divisive making the cut. I even have Guillermo del Toro's The Shape of Water missing the cut, as I'm just not sure that's the kind of movie that will connect with this branch. As packed as it is, Best Original Screenplay is going to change rapidly over the coming months- but I think a few of these films are locks.
To me, this is the category where Jordan Peele leaves with a win. Universal is going to push Get Out hard, and the bold, astonishing originality displayed in his screenplay is going to touch a nerve here. But he'll face a mighty challenger in the form of Martin McDonagh, a famous playwright and screenwriter who has delivered the kind of film that tends to win this category. Three Billboards is gaining steam, and McDonagh could soon emerge as the front-runner. Also worth keeping an eye on are The Big Sick and Lady Bird, two autobiographical projects that could connect with voters. And while I'm still not entirely sure if The Post is going to end up in this category (Gold Derby has it here, so I'm trusting them), the screenplay will be nominated no matter what.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Image: IMDB/Sony Pictures Classics
1. James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
2. Richard Linklater and Darryl Ponicsan, Last Flag Flying
3. Aaron Sorkin, Molly's Game
4. Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber, The Disaster Artist
5. Anthony McCarten, Darkest Hour
It's always funny that people talk about originality being dead in Hollywood when, on a consistent basis, the Best Adapted Screenplay category is lighter than its counterpart. To me, these are your five nominees- I'm not seeing much else beyond the shaky proposition of Mudbound that stands a chance. The Beguiled? Nope. Wonderstruck? Forget about it. Victoria & Abdul? Fat chance. Logan? Yeah, I wish.
Even in a category that rarely feels packed with contenders, this is a particularly weak year, which should result in a long, drawn-out battle between Call Me By Your Name and Last Flag Flying. The latter is still an unknown, but there's enough buzz on Richard Linklater's film that I have to imagine he's delivered something outstanding. The Texas-based filmmaker has been nominated for five Oscars and left without a win each and every time, which could result in a "he's due" moment for his screenplay here. But the Call Me By Your Name supporters are very passionate, and James Ivory is a respected director who never won an Oscar. Frankly, it just comes down to how well Last Flag Flying plays.
Molly's Game is a certain nominee, but as much as I love Aaron Sorkin, it doesn't seem like he's reinventing the wheel here. The Disaster Artist feels like a good bet as well, and Darkest Hour is the kind of film that thrives here. The main contenders will duke it out for a while, but this category feels fairly easy to forget.
And for now, that's all folks. I'll be back in a few short weeks with an update once we've seen a few additional contenders. Hopefully I'll be able to break down a few of the technical categories by then.
BEST PICTURE
Image courtesy of Warner Bros.
1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. The Post
4. Call Me By Your Name
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6. Darkest Hour
7. Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Movie
8. Lady Bird
9. Get Out
10. The Florida Project
11. Last Flag Flying
12. Blade Runner 2049
13. Battle of the Sexes
14. Wonder Woman
15. The Big Sick
If you're the Dunkirk campaign at Warner Bros., you're breathing a sigh of relief after this first wave of festivals. Not because there aren't any films that will challenge Christopher Nolan's World War II thriller- as I'll get to in a second, there definitely are some contenders. But nothing from Venice, Telluride, or Toronto emerged as an overwhelming favorite, the kind of jaw-dropping Oscar movie that stops pundits and audiences in their tracks. You could argue that Moonlight didn't have that kind of "it" factor last year, although as someone who was in the house for the emotional TIFF premiere at the Winter Garden theater, I beg to differ. But based on what we have seen, Dunkirk is still the front-runner. Guillermo del Toro's The Shape of Water is running a close second, and while I know that the Academy has a rapidly changing demographic due to membership adjustments over the past few years, I'm still taking the formally daring World War II drama over the strange science fiction movie any days of the week. The Academy is fine embracing indie films and small-scale offerings, but sci-fi is a hurdle that they haven't been able to jump yet.
Obviously the big unknown question here is The Post, Steven Spielberg's new film that was rushed into production solely on the basis of its topicality. Even in the era of Trumpian politics and attacks against the fourth estate, I'm struggling to see a world where another workmanlike portrayal of journalists wins Best Picture. Maybe I'm reading the room wrong, but something about the way The Post came together and Spielberg's recent track record of sturdy, conventional dramas has left me deeply skeptical. I think we can count on a nomination for Call Me By Your Name, as it continues to receive rave reviews and emotional reactions out of the festivals. It doesn't feel like a winner to me, and Sony Pictures Classics notoriously has trouble mounting successful campaigns, but it's one to watch out for.
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is a true contender- the raves coming out of Venice and Toronto were very, very strong, and the film took home the People's Choice Award at TIFF. It's here to stay. Darkest Hour is seemingly too ordinary to be a winner, and Focus Features will likely center their efforts on ensuring that Gary Oldman gets his due, but I have to imagine that the Winston Churchill biopic will be warmly embraced by the more traditional members of the Academy. Paul Thomas Anderson's new film is still the great unknown of the awards season, and I'm keeping it in the top ten based on Anderson and Daniel Day Lewis' starpower alone. Nobody knows if it's even coming out this year, let alone if it's an Oscar player. Lady Bird was the other big surprise of the first wave, generating incredible passion and universal acclaim that could certainly translate to Oscar success. I think the jury is still out on whether it plays like The Edge of Seventeen or if it's a genuine contender, but it's one to keep an eye on. Jordan Peele's Get Out still feels like a risk to me, but Universal is pretty much going to be focusing their awards efforts entirely on the breakout social thriller. I imagine a big push is coming for the film, and especially for Peele's dynamite work.
Rounding out my top ten, I have Sean Baker's The Florida Project, which feels more and more like a legitimate contender every single day. The reception at TIFF was almost universally warm, and this seems like the kind of movie that will drum up support from a passionate fanbase. Sitting right on the bubble line are Last Flag Flying and Blade Runner 2049, two films that we haven't seen anything from as of yet. If both hit, expect the pressure to be put on Lady Bird and Get Out. Battle of the Sexes doesn't feel like an Oscar movie, but it very well could find its way in. Wonder Woman should be up there (as should Logan), but it takes the perfect storm to stick in the minds of voters- and I just don't think this film is it. The Big Sick is wonderful, but it's a screenplay nod waiting to happen.
But just as the early festivals cemented a variety of legitimate contenders, several films found themselves dead on arrival. After raves at Venice, Alexander Payne's Downsizing is practically out of the Best Picture race, emerging as something that is going to be way too divisive. George Clooney's Suburbicon was panned by most critics, and while there's quite a bit of discussion centered around Darren Aronofsky's genius mother!, it just isn't happening from an awards perspective. I think Todd Haynes' Wonderstruck is all but finished as well, and I can't see The Current War or Detroit sneaking in either. In terms of other stuff we haven't seen yet, I'm keeping an eye on The Greatest Showman and All the Money in the World even if they feel like outside chances at the moment.
BEST DIRECTOR
Image courtesy of Warner Bros.
2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
3. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name
4. Paul Thomas Anderson, Untitled PTA Movie
5. Jordan Peele, Get Out
It's looking like Nolan vs. del Toro for Best Director this year, a battle between two filmmakers who are long overdue. Paul Thomas Anderson has the potential to radically change the conversation if his fashion film delivers, but as of now, I have him just as a nominee. Steven Spielberg could definitely be a factor as well, but let's be real, the Academy values showy, elaborate direction over solid, blunt filmmaking. How else do you explain Alejandro G. Inarritu winning two years in a row? Luca Guadagnino feels like a very solid bet, and I think you're going to see a push to get either Jordan Peele or Patty Jenkins in the race as a show of diversity behind the camera in today's industry. I have Peele getting the edge right now over some other films, but that could change as the season goes on. As for who has the advantage in the battle between Nolan and del Toro, my gut instinct says the former is the favorite. I love both filmmakers (although I certainly have more of an adoration for Nolan's films), but I think there's more of a sense in Hollywood that Nolan is overdue. The Shape of Water is arguably del Toro's second certified masterpiece (Pan's Labyrinth being the first), but Nolan is up to three or four depending on who you ask. Barring any surprises, he's your front-runner.
BEST ACTOR
Image courtesy of Focus Features
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
2. Daniel Day Lewis, Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Movie
3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist
5. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger
Gary Oldman is probably waiting with baited breath to see what Daniel Day Lewis does in Paul Thomas Anderson's next movie. Because unless the Hollywood icon delivers something as monumental as Daniel Plainview or Abraham Lincoln in his final role, Oldman is more than likely going to take home the statue for his role as Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour. Everyone else is just happy to be nominated. This is a competitive race this year, and I currently have actors like Denzel Washington and Tom Hanks missing the cut- the latter seems to have had particularly bad luck in recent years. Timothee Chalamet has received widespread praise for his role as a teenager exploring his burgeoning sexuality in Call Me By Your Name, and I think the love for that film is strong enough that he'll make the cut. The Disaster Artist played absurdly well at TIFF, and everybody seemed to be in love with James Franco's performance as Tommy Wiseau. And in a season with so many serious films, there's gonna be some love for a crazy comedic performance. Finally, Stronger got a nice reception at TIFF, much better than I originally anticipated. Jake Gyllenhaal has been snubbed before (most egregiously for Nightcrawler), but in this more prestigious role, I have to imagine that the Academy will be more attentive.
BEST ACTRESS
Image courtesy of Fox Searchlight
1. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
5. Meryl Streep, The Post
If the Best Actor race is weaker than usual, the Best Actress race is perhaps the strongest it has ever been. After all, my current predictions do not account for Lady Bird's Saoirse Ronan, Victoria & Abdul's Judi Dench, Molly's Game's Jessica Chastain, Wonder Wheel's Kate Winslet, and mother!'s Jennifer Lawrence. Any one of those five actresses could end up making the cut, and I would not be surprised in the slightest. And anyone who is ready to predict a win must be out of their mind. This race is far from over, and if I had to guess, this is one that will go down to the wire. Meryl Streep gets a nomination for just about anything, so I have to imagine that she'll be in contention for Spielberg's The Post. NEON has no experience running Oscar campaigns, but people really seem to like I, Tonya, and Margot Robbie is an actress who has only grown in esteem since her breakout role in The Wolf of Wall Street. This could very well be her Oscar moment.
Emma Stone feels like a shakier proposition for a reason that is out of her control- she won last year for La La Land. People love her in Battle of the Sexes, but I don't think it's the kind of knock-your-socks-off performance that warrants a back-to-back victory. For me, the two locks are Frances McDormand and Sally Hawkins. McDormand is almost always good, and it sounds like she's better than ever in Martin McDonagh's darkly comic crime saga. For now, I'm giving the edge to Hawkins, who supposedly delivers dynamite work as a mute janitor in Guillermo del Toro's Cold War fairy tale. Hawkins also received acclaim for her turn in Maudie, and I have a feeling that voters are going to want to recognize The Shape of Water in some capacity. That makes Hawkins the current front-runner, but this could change in an instant.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Image courtesy of A24
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
2. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
4. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk
The supporting categories rarely come into focus until the very last minute, but I think we're really starting to see this one come together. Three actors are currently sitting on the bubble line, as Darkest Hour's Ben Mendelsohn (I would love to see him get an Oscar nod after years of great work), The Shape of Water's Michael Shannon, and Mudbound's Jason Mitchell seem poised to make a run at a nomination. I have a feeling that Warner Bros. is going to push Mark Rylance hard for Dunkirk, as they'll need some kind of acting nomination to indicate to the larger voting body that the film is more than just a technical marvel. Sam Rockwell got some of the strongest notices for his performance as a racist cop in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, and I have a feeling that Martin McDonagh's black comedy will develop a reputation as an actor's movie. He's a likely bet for a nomination.
Then come the two supporting stars of Call Me By Your Name- Michael Stuhlbarg and Armie Hammer. Stuhlbarg's final monologue has been praised since the film premiered at Sundance, and Hammer is practically a co-lead with Timothee Chalamet. Depending on how well it connects with the larger voting body, we could definitely see both actors snag a nomination. But ultimately, their competition with each other would lead to a win for Willem Dafoe, who will likely be the focus of A24's campaign for The Florida Project. Even judging by the trailer, Dafoe appears to deliver a masterfully emotional performance, and he's one of those supporting actors who has created an incredible body of work without recognition from the Academy. This could very well be his year.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Image courtesy of Lionsgate
1. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
2. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
3. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
4. Allison Janney, I, Tonya
5. Hong Chau, Downsizing
If Supporting Actor is really coming together, then I would say that Supporting Actress is a little shakier at the moment. The field is narrowing, but there are still several unknowns, especially Sarah Paulson in The Post and Lesley Manville in Paul Thomas Anderson's still untitled film. I think Mary J. Blige in Mudbound is a strong possibility with the right push, and the same can be said for Darkest Hour's Kristin Scott Thomas, mother!'s Michelle Pfeiffer, and Novitiate's Melissa Leo. But for now, these are the five best bets, and I think a few of them can be counted as locks. Downsizing's Hong Chau is the shakiest proposition, as the character has already been positioned as a stereotypical caricature in some circles. But her performance will have as many supporters as detractors, and that could be enough to push her to a nomination.
Allison Janney received endless praise for her turn in I, Tonya, and I would place her higher if not for my uncertainty over NEON's campaign. Octavia Spencer is a perpetual player in this category, and she looks to deliver another great performance in The Shape of Water. But ultimately, this year's race will come down to two prickly moms- Holly Hunter in The Big Sick and Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird. Their chances hinge on how much the Academy takes to their respective films, and right now, I think the response to Lady Bird and specifically Metcalf's performance is out of this world. She has the edge, but it's still early in this category.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Image: Universal/IMDB
1. Jordan Peele, Get Out
2. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. Gordon, The Big Sick
4. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
5. Liz Hannah and Josh Singer, The Post
As always, Best Original Screenplay is stacked this year. And this is a category where auteurs like Paul Thomas Anderson and Alexander Payne could be recognized for films that don't resonate with the Academy at large. That being said, the competition is so stiff this year that I can't see anything divisive making the cut. I even have Guillermo del Toro's The Shape of Water missing the cut, as I'm just not sure that's the kind of movie that will connect with this branch. As packed as it is, Best Original Screenplay is going to change rapidly over the coming months- but I think a few of these films are locks.
To me, this is the category where Jordan Peele leaves with a win. Universal is going to push Get Out hard, and the bold, astonishing originality displayed in his screenplay is going to touch a nerve here. But he'll face a mighty challenger in the form of Martin McDonagh, a famous playwright and screenwriter who has delivered the kind of film that tends to win this category. Three Billboards is gaining steam, and McDonagh could soon emerge as the front-runner. Also worth keeping an eye on are The Big Sick and Lady Bird, two autobiographical projects that could connect with voters. And while I'm still not entirely sure if The Post is going to end up in this category (Gold Derby has it here, so I'm trusting them), the screenplay will be nominated no matter what.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Image: IMDB/Sony Pictures Classics
1. James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
2. Richard Linklater and Darryl Ponicsan, Last Flag Flying
3. Aaron Sorkin, Molly's Game
4. Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber, The Disaster Artist
5. Anthony McCarten, Darkest Hour
It's always funny that people talk about originality being dead in Hollywood when, on a consistent basis, the Best Adapted Screenplay category is lighter than its counterpart. To me, these are your five nominees- I'm not seeing much else beyond the shaky proposition of Mudbound that stands a chance. The Beguiled? Nope. Wonderstruck? Forget about it. Victoria & Abdul? Fat chance. Logan? Yeah, I wish.
Even in a category that rarely feels packed with contenders, this is a particularly weak year, which should result in a long, drawn-out battle between Call Me By Your Name and Last Flag Flying. The latter is still an unknown, but there's enough buzz on Richard Linklater's film that I have to imagine he's delivered something outstanding. The Texas-based filmmaker has been nominated for five Oscars and left without a win each and every time, which could result in a "he's due" moment for his screenplay here. But the Call Me By Your Name supporters are very passionate, and James Ivory is a respected director who never won an Oscar. Frankly, it just comes down to how well Last Flag Flying plays.
Molly's Game is a certain nominee, but as much as I love Aaron Sorkin, it doesn't seem like he's reinventing the wheel here. The Disaster Artist feels like a good bet as well, and Darkest Hour is the kind of film that thrives here. The main contenders will duke it out for a while, but this category feels fairly easy to forget.
And for now, that's all folks. I'll be back in a few short weeks with an update once we've seen a few additional contenders. Hopefully I'll be able to break down a few of the technical categories by then.
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