At this point, it's hard to say what's going to happen in the Best Picture race. Every other Oscar race is seemingly sealed up- I'd be shocked if Guillermo del Toro, Gary Oldman, Frances McDormand, Sam Rockwell, or Allison Janney lost on March 4. But no film has a clear and distinct advantage in the Best Picture race. The Shape of Water seems like the favorite with its 13 nominations and strong presence in practically every race, but the SAG Ensemble miss is lingering in the minds of prognosticators. Three Billboards has proven to be the most divisive film of the year, Lady Bird has yet to surge in any significant way, and films like The Post, Call Me By Your Name, and Darkest Hour seem to be non-starters. Variety's Kristopher Tapley is putting his money on Dunkirk, while many other voters are hoping for a Get Out upset. Last weekend, the WGA Awards came along in the hopes of clearing up the race, but the picture remains as complex as ever.
Image: Universal/IMDb
The Writers Guild of America awarded their annual prizes for Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay to Jordan Peele's Get Out and James Ivory's Call Me By Your Name, respectively. It is worth noting that Martin McDonagh's Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri was ineligible for the Original Screenplay prize, which removes one of the biggest contenders from that category. Nonetheless, this is a huge win for Peele and the Get Out team, a victory that solidifies its status as the film to beat in this category at the Oscars. Among other contenders, the film defeated Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird and Guillermo del Toro/Vanessa Taylor's The Shape of Water, both considered to be heavyweights in the race. Time will only tell if the horror satire can follow Moonlight's path to a surprise Best Picture win, but I wouldn't be shocked at this point.
Image: Sony Pictures Classics/IMDb
As for Call Me By Your Name, I think Ivory has Best Adapted Screenplay all locked up. While I'm not convinced that the film has even an outside shot in the Best Picture race (some online polls have been showing it as an underdog favorite), this should allow voters to recognize Luca Guadagnino's romantic masterwork in a minor way. Sony Pictures Classics should have done a much better job with this film, but I'll settle for a small victory.
So with the WGA Awards establishing clear favorites in the screenplay races, where does the race stand? Frankly, I'm not sure. Voting hasn't even begun yet, and Academy voters still have time to watch all the screeners. Some think Phantom Thread is surging big time, while the aforementioned Tapley is going out on a limb touting a preferential ballot boost for Dunkirk. For the record, I would be ecstatic with either of these results.
The BAFTAs may help a little, but after that, it's only the Indie Spirit Awards and the big finale on March 4. It's been an utterly exhausting season, but I'm hopeful that things will end with a bang.
Image: Universal/IMDb
The Writers Guild of America awarded their annual prizes for Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay to Jordan Peele's Get Out and James Ivory's Call Me By Your Name, respectively. It is worth noting that Martin McDonagh's Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri was ineligible for the Original Screenplay prize, which removes one of the biggest contenders from that category. Nonetheless, this is a huge win for Peele and the Get Out team, a victory that solidifies its status as the film to beat in this category at the Oscars. Among other contenders, the film defeated Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird and Guillermo del Toro/Vanessa Taylor's The Shape of Water, both considered to be heavyweights in the race. Time will only tell if the horror satire can follow Moonlight's path to a surprise Best Picture win, but I wouldn't be shocked at this point.
Image: Sony Pictures Classics/IMDb
As for Call Me By Your Name, I think Ivory has Best Adapted Screenplay all locked up. While I'm not convinced that the film has even an outside shot in the Best Picture race (some online polls have been showing it as an underdog favorite), this should allow voters to recognize Luca Guadagnino's romantic masterwork in a minor way. Sony Pictures Classics should have done a much better job with this film, but I'll settle for a small victory.
So with the WGA Awards establishing clear favorites in the screenplay races, where does the race stand? Frankly, I'm not sure. Voting hasn't even begun yet, and Academy voters still have time to watch all the screeners. Some think Phantom Thread is surging big time, while the aforementioned Tapley is going out on a limb touting a preferential ballot boost for Dunkirk. For the record, I would be ecstatic with either of these results.
The BAFTAs may help a little, but after that, it's only the Indie Spirit Awards and the big finale on March 4. It's been an utterly exhausting season, but I'm hopeful that things will end with a bang.
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