Believe it or not, this year's summer movie season is almost done. Steven Soderbergh's Logan Lucky will close out the four-month stretch of films that started all the way back on May 5 with Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 2. And it has been a remarkably good time at the movies, even if the box office hasn't matched up. Great directors like Christopher Nolan, Edgar Wright, and Matt Reeves have delivered jaw-dropping masterworks, Bong Joon-ho made Netflix's best movie yet, the superhero movies were pretty consistent, and there was even a nice indie drama or two to counter-program the madness. We're in the unusual position of already having a Best Picture front-runner released in thousands of theaters, which is something that hasn't happened in all my years of covering the Oscars. But now, it's time to bring out the heavy hitters. The Venice Film Festival starts at the end of the month, and it'll be quickly followed by Telluride and Toronto. So many major films will be premiering at those fests, and we'll rapidly get an idea of the contenders and pretenders. But before the picture clears up, let's make some early Oscar predictions and throw out some guesses for what could be in the race at the end of the year.
BEST PICTURE
Image: Warner Bros./IMDB
1. Dunkirk
2. Call Me By Your Name
3. The Shape of Water
4. Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson
5. Untitled Steven Spielberg
6. Darkest Hour
7. Blade Runner 2049
8. Downsizing
9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
10. Last Flag Flying
11. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
12. Wonder Woman
13. Wonderstruck
14. Roman Israel, Esq.
15. Detroit
16. Logan
17. The Big Sick
18. War for the Planet of the Apes
19. Battle of the Sexes
20. The Current War
At this stage in the game, Best Picture is a genuine crapshoot. There are only a few films that I'm certain will make it in, and while I actually did pretty well at my uber-early predictions last year, I'm decidedly less confident this year. For starters, Christopher Nolan's Dunkirk is at the top of the list- and I would put a lot of money on this one making the final cut. A World War II movie from one of our most popular auteurs that also doubles as one of the year's most acclaimed films? Yeah, I think we're looking at Oscars for this one. Luca Guadagnino's Call Me By Your Name has been on the 2017-18 Oscar radar since Sundance, and while I'm not entirely confident that Sony Pictures Classics can pull off a great campaign, this feels like a likely nominee. I'm not sure if it's a winner, but if Moonlight can take the crown, anything is possible. Also emerging as a possible front-runner is Guillermo del Toro's The Shape of Water, which is receiving a major push from Fox Searchlight. The film is playing at just about every single major festival, seeming to indicate that the studio believes it has something special. The trailer is magnificent, and I'm thrilled to see del Toro back in the race after a blockbuster absence.
In the middle of my pack of front-runners, I have our two films without titles, labeled as contenders only because of the talent involved- Steven Spielberg and Paul Thomas Anderson. The former will be tackling a film about the Pentagon Papers, which is especially timely given the recent attacks on the media and the free press. Even minor Spielberg entries like Bridge of Spies tend to get Best Picture nominations when they fit in the wheelhouse, so I can't see this one missing out. As for the Anderson picture, it's a bit of a trickier proposition. The Master and Inherent Vice both had minor success with the Academy, but their challenging nature limited their appeal. But with this new project representing a reunion with There Will Be Blood star Daniel Day-Lewis, this film feels tailored for more Oscar success.
Speaking of being tailored for Oscar success, this brings me to Joe Wright's Darkest Hour, a biopic of Winston Churchill that seems to check all the boxes. Well-regarded actor undergoing massive physical transformation, critically acclaimed director, historical source material, festival bows, etc. Unless it's a surprise bomb, it's getting in. Blade Runner 2049 will be a tougher sell, but the Academy recognized the brilliance of Denis Villeneuve with last year's Arrival, and I'm betting on another nom here. If you had asked me a week ago, Downsizing would have been at the top of this list, but I'm hearing some really bad buzz on this one. Sure, it's opening Venice (aka the La La Land and Birdman slot), but it also seems to be heading towards a disappointing result. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri looks like the perfect balance of commercial appeal and critical success, while this seems like the opportune moment for Richard Linklater to sneak back into the race with Last Flag Flying.
As for movies that are just missing the cut, we have a lot of blockbusters. I have a very good feeling about Star Wars: The Last Jedi, a feeling that I didn't even have when The Force Awakens was rolling out. If it ends up being the best Star Wars movie yet (which it very well could), an Oscar nomination wouldn't be out of the question. Word on the street is that Warner Bros. is planning a major campaign for Wonder Woman, and they very well may get it through. When it comes to this, Logan, War for the Planet of the Apes, and The Big Sick, it just depends on the quality of the rest of the year. Wonderstruck is a possibility, but if Carol couldn't get in, why would Todd Haynes's significantly less acclaimed follow-up. Roman Israel, Esq. is a total wild card, and while Detroit was initially welcomed with open arms, the film world has turned its back as the backlash began. Battle of the Sexes and The Current War round out the list as Oscar bait that I'm not ready to embrace just yet.
BEST DIRECTOR
Image: Warner Bros./IMDB
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
2. Paul Thomas Anderson, Untitled PTA Project
3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
4. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name
5. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049
Best Director always has one or two wild cards, but this year seems to be stacked with true auteurs. Christopher Nolan leads the way for his gripping, thrilling work on Dunkirk, which is undoubtedly his most impressive cinematic achievement to date. This seems like Nolan's year, and if he doesn't win for Dunkirk, I'm not sure that he'll ever win. But it very well could also be Paul Thomas Anderson's year- the guy has delivered three masterpieces and still hasn't won Best Director. While we don't really know what this project is about, we know that it's set in the fashion world, and recent reports have indicated that there's a kinky element to its storytelling. So, your guess is as good as mine, but a new P.T. Anderson movie is reason to be excited. Guillermo del Toro got a screenplay nod back in 2007 for Pan's Labyrinth, but he didn't make the cut in the directing category. Should The Shape of Water deliver like I think it will, I firmly believe that del Toro's fortunes will change this year.
Luca Guadagnino feels like a shoo-in for his supposedly sumptuous work on Call Me By Your Name, while I currently have the fifth slot going to Denis Villeneuve for Blade Runner 2049. I'm not sure how the heady sci-fi will play with the Academy, but they nominated Villeneuve for Arrival, so anything is possible. Missing the cut are perennial favorites like Steven Spielberg and Richard Linklater, who very well could jump into the race if their films over-deliver.
BEST ACTOR
Image courtesy of Fox
1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Untitled PTA Project
2. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
3. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying
4. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
5. Hugh Jackman, Logan
If Daniel Day-Lewis has a movie coming out, he's the favorite for the Oscar. This is awards 101. We know nothing about Day-Lewis's character or PTA's next film, but he's the favorite regardless. And especially considering that this is reportedly his last performance, the Academy will feel the pressure to hand the greatest actor of all time his fourth Oscar. But coming in a close second is Gary Oldman, who looks magnetic as Winston Churchill and is long overdue for some awards love. In his storied career, Oldman has only received one Oscar nomination, and his performance as Churchill seems to be the kind of physical transformation that the Academy loves. Bryan Cranston is already gaining good buzz for Last Flag Flying, while the praise for Timothee Chalamet hasn't stopped since Call Me By Your Name's Sundance premiere. The fifth slot is a bit of a toss-up at the moment, but for now, I'm going with Hugh Jackman in Logan. This very well could go to Roman Israel's Denzel Washington or The Disaster Artist's James Franco, but Jackman's painful, nuanced performance would be a great way to honor one of the very best superhero films ever made.
BEST ACTRESS
Image courtesy of Fox Searchlight
1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
3. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
4. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
5. Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game
When the trailer for Three Billboards dropped, Frances McDormand became the front-runner in the Best Actress race. Her portrayal of a foul-mouthed mother seeking justice for her daughter's murder looks angry, righteous, and hysterical all at the same time, and I can't wait to see what she does in the full film. I also think Sally Hawkins has a good shot at becoming a front-runner for her silent performance in The Shape of Water, where she plays a deaf woman communicating with a mythical creature. Annette Bening has crept onto the radar for Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, a low-key drama that appears to be gaining a significant push from Sony Pictures Classics. Bening has been nominated four times without a single win, which could mean that the "she's due" narrative is in play.
It's unlikely that Emma Stone will win again no matter how good she is as Billie Jean King in Battle of the Sexes, but it isn't unheard of for a performer to get nominated again immediately after a win. And finally, while I'm not quite sure how Aaron Sorkin's Molly's Game will play out, it seems like the right vehicle for a Jessica Chastain nomination. Or this could turn into a Miss Sloane situation and the film could evaporate into thin air.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
2. Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
3. Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying
4. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk
5. Patrick Stewart, Logan
Supporting categories are always harder to predict this early, especially in a year that seems rather thin on genuine Oscar players. I'm not sure if The Florida Project will play like Moonlight or vanish entirely, but everyone seems to be in agreement that Willem Dafoe is going to get nominated for his performance in the film. The same consensus can be applied to Armie Hammer, who looks like a guarantee for Call Me By Your Name. Last Flag Flying will be an acting powerhouse, and Laurence Fishburne has miraculously not been nominated since 1994. If he's good here, expect a nomination. In recent weeks, there's been a growing push for Mark Rylance, who does tremendously understated work in Dunkirk. He's beloved by the Academy, and could certainly find himself under consideration. And finally, there's the legendary Patrick Stewart, who has somehow never been nominated for an Oscar. He's terrific in what could be his final outing as Charles Xavier, and if the film connects, expect a nod.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Image courtesy of Fox Searchlight
1. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck
2. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
3. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
4. Lesley Manville, Untitled PTA
5. Carrie Fisher, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
To be honest, I don't know who the front-runner is here. The Oscars are about honoring great performances and movies, but they're also about politics. Will Julianne Moore win another Oscar so shortly after winning for Still Alice? No, absolutely not. That's not how the game works. I have Moore at #1 because I really don't know who else to put there. Holly Hunter feels like a nominee for The Big Sick, but is that an Oscar-winning performance? I don't think so. Octavia Spencer could win her second Oscar, but what are Lesley Manville's chances? If the film is great, she's got a shot, but this sounds like the Day-Lewis show. And finally, we arrive at Carrie Fisher. The Academy has awarded posthumous performances in the past, and Fisher's death struck the industry hard. There's been a lot of talk about how much larger of a role Leia has in the sequel, and this could be a perfect chance to leave a legacy for the actress.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Image courtesy of Amazon
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, Untitled PTA Project
2. Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor, The Shape of Water
3. Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. Gordon, The Big Sick
4. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Dan Gilroy, Roman Israel, Esq.
Just like the supporting categories, it's hard to get a read on whether screenplays belong in the original or adapted categories. Some are obvious, but others are more difficult to decipher. But let's start here- Paul Thomas Anderson has been nominated for four screenplay Oscars, and has never won. That is honestly amazing to me, and it gives me all the more reason to think that he'll finally win this year. Guillermo del Toro and Martin McDonagh are also auteurs with only one screenplay nomination to their respective names, making The Shape of Water and Three Billboards likely propositions. If The Big Sick shows up anywhere as a force to be reckoned with, it'll be here, and I'm backing on a strong showing from Dan Gilroy's Roman Israel as well. It's too early to set anything in stone, but this is a start for what should be an interesting category.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Image: Sony Classics/IMDB
1. James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
2. Richard Linklater and Darryl Ponicsan, Last Flag Flying
3. Scott Frank, James Mangold, and Michael Green, Logan
4. Brian Selznick, Wonderstruck
5. Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber, The Disaster Artist
If you think Original Screenplay is hard, just wait until you get to Adapted Screenplay. Call Me By Your Name and Last Flag Flying are the obvious front-runners here, fitting the bill of the kind of films that usually get nominated in this category. I can also see The Disaster Artist getting in, as well as Logan creating a blockbuster stir with its complex themes and richly drawn characters. I'm much less confident in Wonderstruck, but if that movie connects, the sky is the limit. We'll see what else crosses into this category- because I'll be honest, I have no idea what else is even going to be eligible.
So yeah, these are my super early Oscar predictions. Expect an update after the festivals, when we'll get a much clearer picture of the 2017-18 awards season powerhouses.
BEST PICTURE
Image: Warner Bros./IMDB
1. Dunkirk
2. Call Me By Your Name
3. The Shape of Water
4. Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson
5. Untitled Steven Spielberg
6. Darkest Hour
7. Blade Runner 2049
8. Downsizing
9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
10. Last Flag Flying
11. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
12. Wonder Woman
13. Wonderstruck
14. Roman Israel, Esq.
15. Detroit
16. Logan
17. The Big Sick
18. War for the Planet of the Apes
19. Battle of the Sexes
20. The Current War
At this stage in the game, Best Picture is a genuine crapshoot. There are only a few films that I'm certain will make it in, and while I actually did pretty well at my uber-early predictions last year, I'm decidedly less confident this year. For starters, Christopher Nolan's Dunkirk is at the top of the list- and I would put a lot of money on this one making the final cut. A World War II movie from one of our most popular auteurs that also doubles as one of the year's most acclaimed films? Yeah, I think we're looking at Oscars for this one. Luca Guadagnino's Call Me By Your Name has been on the 2017-18 Oscar radar since Sundance, and while I'm not entirely confident that Sony Pictures Classics can pull off a great campaign, this feels like a likely nominee. I'm not sure if it's a winner, but if Moonlight can take the crown, anything is possible. Also emerging as a possible front-runner is Guillermo del Toro's The Shape of Water, which is receiving a major push from Fox Searchlight. The film is playing at just about every single major festival, seeming to indicate that the studio believes it has something special. The trailer is magnificent, and I'm thrilled to see del Toro back in the race after a blockbuster absence.
In the middle of my pack of front-runners, I have our two films without titles, labeled as contenders only because of the talent involved- Steven Spielberg and Paul Thomas Anderson. The former will be tackling a film about the Pentagon Papers, which is especially timely given the recent attacks on the media and the free press. Even minor Spielberg entries like Bridge of Spies tend to get Best Picture nominations when they fit in the wheelhouse, so I can't see this one missing out. As for the Anderson picture, it's a bit of a trickier proposition. The Master and Inherent Vice both had minor success with the Academy, but their challenging nature limited their appeal. But with this new project representing a reunion with There Will Be Blood star Daniel Day-Lewis, this film feels tailored for more Oscar success.
Speaking of being tailored for Oscar success, this brings me to Joe Wright's Darkest Hour, a biopic of Winston Churchill that seems to check all the boxes. Well-regarded actor undergoing massive physical transformation, critically acclaimed director, historical source material, festival bows, etc. Unless it's a surprise bomb, it's getting in. Blade Runner 2049 will be a tougher sell, but the Academy recognized the brilliance of Denis Villeneuve with last year's Arrival, and I'm betting on another nom here. If you had asked me a week ago, Downsizing would have been at the top of this list, but I'm hearing some really bad buzz on this one. Sure, it's opening Venice (aka the La La Land and Birdman slot), but it also seems to be heading towards a disappointing result. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri looks like the perfect balance of commercial appeal and critical success, while this seems like the opportune moment for Richard Linklater to sneak back into the race with Last Flag Flying.
As for movies that are just missing the cut, we have a lot of blockbusters. I have a very good feeling about Star Wars: The Last Jedi, a feeling that I didn't even have when The Force Awakens was rolling out. If it ends up being the best Star Wars movie yet (which it very well could), an Oscar nomination wouldn't be out of the question. Word on the street is that Warner Bros. is planning a major campaign for Wonder Woman, and they very well may get it through. When it comes to this, Logan, War for the Planet of the Apes, and The Big Sick, it just depends on the quality of the rest of the year. Wonderstruck is a possibility, but if Carol couldn't get in, why would Todd Haynes's significantly less acclaimed follow-up. Roman Israel, Esq. is a total wild card, and while Detroit was initially welcomed with open arms, the film world has turned its back as the backlash began. Battle of the Sexes and The Current War round out the list as Oscar bait that I'm not ready to embrace just yet.
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
2. Paul Thomas Anderson, Untitled PTA Project
3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
4. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name
5. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049
Best Director always has one or two wild cards, but this year seems to be stacked with true auteurs. Christopher Nolan leads the way for his gripping, thrilling work on Dunkirk, which is undoubtedly his most impressive cinematic achievement to date. This seems like Nolan's year, and if he doesn't win for Dunkirk, I'm not sure that he'll ever win. But it very well could also be Paul Thomas Anderson's year- the guy has delivered three masterpieces and still hasn't won Best Director. While we don't really know what this project is about, we know that it's set in the fashion world, and recent reports have indicated that there's a kinky element to its storytelling. So, your guess is as good as mine, but a new P.T. Anderson movie is reason to be excited. Guillermo del Toro got a screenplay nod back in 2007 for Pan's Labyrinth, but he didn't make the cut in the directing category. Should The Shape of Water deliver like I think it will, I firmly believe that del Toro's fortunes will change this year.
Luca Guadagnino feels like a shoo-in for his supposedly sumptuous work on Call Me By Your Name, while I currently have the fifth slot going to Denis Villeneuve for Blade Runner 2049. I'm not sure how the heady sci-fi will play with the Academy, but they nominated Villeneuve for Arrival, so anything is possible. Missing the cut are perennial favorites like Steven Spielberg and Richard Linklater, who very well could jump into the race if their films over-deliver.
BEST ACTOR
Image courtesy of Fox
1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Untitled PTA Project
2. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
3. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying
4. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
5. Hugh Jackman, Logan
If Daniel Day-Lewis has a movie coming out, he's the favorite for the Oscar. This is awards 101. We know nothing about Day-Lewis's character or PTA's next film, but he's the favorite regardless. And especially considering that this is reportedly his last performance, the Academy will feel the pressure to hand the greatest actor of all time his fourth Oscar. But coming in a close second is Gary Oldman, who looks magnetic as Winston Churchill and is long overdue for some awards love. In his storied career, Oldman has only received one Oscar nomination, and his performance as Churchill seems to be the kind of physical transformation that the Academy loves. Bryan Cranston is already gaining good buzz for Last Flag Flying, while the praise for Timothee Chalamet hasn't stopped since Call Me By Your Name's Sundance premiere. The fifth slot is a bit of a toss-up at the moment, but for now, I'm going with Hugh Jackman in Logan. This very well could go to Roman Israel's Denzel Washington or The Disaster Artist's James Franco, but Jackman's painful, nuanced performance would be a great way to honor one of the very best superhero films ever made.
BEST ACTRESS
Image courtesy of Fox Searchlight
1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
3. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
4. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
5. Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game
When the trailer for Three Billboards dropped, Frances McDormand became the front-runner in the Best Actress race. Her portrayal of a foul-mouthed mother seeking justice for her daughter's murder looks angry, righteous, and hysterical all at the same time, and I can't wait to see what she does in the full film. I also think Sally Hawkins has a good shot at becoming a front-runner for her silent performance in The Shape of Water, where she plays a deaf woman communicating with a mythical creature. Annette Bening has crept onto the radar for Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, a low-key drama that appears to be gaining a significant push from Sony Pictures Classics. Bening has been nominated four times without a single win, which could mean that the "she's due" narrative is in play.
It's unlikely that Emma Stone will win again no matter how good she is as Billie Jean King in Battle of the Sexes, but it isn't unheard of for a performer to get nominated again immediately after a win. And finally, while I'm not quite sure how Aaron Sorkin's Molly's Game will play out, it seems like the right vehicle for a Jessica Chastain nomination. Or this could turn into a Miss Sloane situation and the film could evaporate into thin air.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
2. Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
3. Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying
4. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk
5. Patrick Stewart, Logan
Supporting categories are always harder to predict this early, especially in a year that seems rather thin on genuine Oscar players. I'm not sure if The Florida Project will play like Moonlight or vanish entirely, but everyone seems to be in agreement that Willem Dafoe is going to get nominated for his performance in the film. The same consensus can be applied to Armie Hammer, who looks like a guarantee for Call Me By Your Name. Last Flag Flying will be an acting powerhouse, and Laurence Fishburne has miraculously not been nominated since 1994. If he's good here, expect a nomination. In recent weeks, there's been a growing push for Mark Rylance, who does tremendously understated work in Dunkirk. He's beloved by the Academy, and could certainly find himself under consideration. And finally, there's the legendary Patrick Stewart, who has somehow never been nominated for an Oscar. He's terrific in what could be his final outing as Charles Xavier, and if the film connects, expect a nod.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck
2. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
3. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
4. Lesley Manville, Untitled PTA
5. Carrie Fisher, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
To be honest, I don't know who the front-runner is here. The Oscars are about honoring great performances and movies, but they're also about politics. Will Julianne Moore win another Oscar so shortly after winning for Still Alice? No, absolutely not. That's not how the game works. I have Moore at #1 because I really don't know who else to put there. Holly Hunter feels like a nominee for The Big Sick, but is that an Oscar-winning performance? I don't think so. Octavia Spencer could win her second Oscar, but what are Lesley Manville's chances? If the film is great, she's got a shot, but this sounds like the Day-Lewis show. And finally, we arrive at Carrie Fisher. The Academy has awarded posthumous performances in the past, and Fisher's death struck the industry hard. There's been a lot of talk about how much larger of a role Leia has in the sequel, and this could be a perfect chance to leave a legacy for the actress.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, Untitled PTA Project
2. Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor, The Shape of Water
3. Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. Gordon, The Big Sick
4. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Dan Gilroy, Roman Israel, Esq.
Just like the supporting categories, it's hard to get a read on whether screenplays belong in the original or adapted categories. Some are obvious, but others are more difficult to decipher. But let's start here- Paul Thomas Anderson has been nominated for four screenplay Oscars, and has never won. That is honestly amazing to me, and it gives me all the more reason to think that he'll finally win this year. Guillermo del Toro and Martin McDonagh are also auteurs with only one screenplay nomination to their respective names, making The Shape of Water and Three Billboards likely propositions. If The Big Sick shows up anywhere as a force to be reckoned with, it'll be here, and I'm backing on a strong showing from Dan Gilroy's Roman Israel as well. It's too early to set anything in stone, but this is a start for what should be an interesting category.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Image: Sony Classics/IMDB
1. James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
2. Richard Linklater and Darryl Ponicsan, Last Flag Flying
3. Scott Frank, James Mangold, and Michael Green, Logan
4. Brian Selznick, Wonderstruck
5. Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber, The Disaster Artist
If you think Original Screenplay is hard, just wait until you get to Adapted Screenplay. Call Me By Your Name and Last Flag Flying are the obvious front-runners here, fitting the bill of the kind of films that usually get nominated in this category. I can also see The Disaster Artist getting in, as well as Logan creating a blockbuster stir with its complex themes and richly drawn characters. I'm much less confident in Wonderstruck, but if that movie connects, the sky is the limit. We'll see what else crosses into this category- because I'll be honest, I have no idea what else is even going to be eligible.
So yeah, these are my super early Oscar predictions. Expect an update after the festivals, when we'll get a much clearer picture of the 2017-18 awards season powerhouses.
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